The next player in our Philadelphia Phillies 2024 Season Preview Series is shortstop Trea Turner.
Previous season previews: José Alvarado, Andrew Bellatti, Alec Bohm, Connor Brogdon, Nick Castellanos, Rodolfo Castro, Kody Clemens, Jake Cave, Dylan Covey, Seranthony Domínguez, Darick Hall, Kolby Allard, Bryce Harper, Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering, Rafael Marchán, Brandon Marsh, Yunior Marté, Michael Mercado, Max Castillo, Nick Nelson, Aaron Nola, Luis Ortiz, Cristian Pache, J.T. Realmuto, Johan Rojas, Michael Rucker, Whit Merrifield, Cristopher Sánchez,Kyle Schwarber, Edmundo Sosa, Gregory Soto, Bryson Stott, Matt Strahm, Garrett Stubbs, Ranger Suárez, Spencer Turnbull
We'll examine Turner's 2023 season and then evaluate projections for the 2024 season using the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems, which can be found on FanGraphs.
Trea Turner 2023 stats and 2024 projections
2023 Stats: 155 G, 691 PA, 26 HR, 76 RBI, 30 SB, 45 BB, .266/.320/.459, .778 OPS, 3.8 fWAR
2024 Steamer: 150 G, 676 PA, 22 HR, 83 RBI, 25 SB, 46 BB, .279/.332/.455, .787 OPS, 3.8 fWAR
2024 ZiPS DC: 157 G, 679 PA, 25 HR, 88 RBI, 28 SB, 47 BB, .290/.342/.479, .821 OPS, 5.2 fWAR
Trea Turner 2024 season preview
Turner is entering his second season with the Phillies. The shortstop's first year was eventful in both positive and negative ways. It was a tale of two seasons for the newest acquisition. From Opening Day through July, Turner never finished a month with an OPS higher than .767 through the first four months of the season.
That all changed in August. Through the end of the season, Turner posted an OPS of 1.061 in August and .932 in September to finish out his inaugural Phillies' campaign with an exclamation point. The nine-year veteran will look to produce more consistently at the plate in 2024.
Turner will also look to improve defensively. Last season, the Phillies' shortstop led the major leagues in errors committed with 23. If he can play his position better this season, the Phillies' middle infield could be one of the best in the league, with Bryson Stott playing a solid second base.
Turner's projections vary quite a bit
The two projection models predict fairly different seasons for Turner. Steamer projects a more modest season, similar to 2023. If those projections were to transpire, it would be fair to say that the Phillies and their $300 million shortstop would be disappointed.
ZiPS DC, on the other hand, projects an improved 2024 offensive performance from Turner. The model predicts a slight drop off in home runs and stolen bases, but drastic increases in his slash line, OPS, and RBI totals. The ZiPS DC projections are more in line with Turner's career averages, so it would not be a major surprise to see totals similar to these projections during his second year.
Turner has been producing at the plate this spring
So far this spring, Turner has been producing. Through 11 games, the 30-year-old is hitting .300 with four doubles, two RBI, and a stolen base. While spring training stats and performance do not always translate into the regular season, it's good to see Turner seeing the ball well early on.
Since he is not missing spring training at-bats to play in the World Baseball Classic this year, the Phillies' shortstop should be able to enter the regular season with his normal preparation. Getting off to a good start can help set the pace of the season for Turner.
Turner spoke about how he feels this spring in comparison to his first spring with the Phillies. Paul Casella of MLB.com wrote about the shortstop's mentality entering year two with his new club. The middle infielder said that he feels better this time around: "I just think the work I've done in the offseason has helped me already. I just feel like I'm ahead of where I was at .”
Can Turner be the player the Phillies paid in 2024?
There is no doubt that Turner is one of the best players in baseball when he is playing well. Last season was a bit of an anomaly for the 10th-year player. He finished the season with numbers below his league average in almost every category.
Now that he is settled and comfortable in his new home, Turner is poised for a turnaround 2024 campaign. He is also coming off a strong second-half performance, which he believes can carry over into this season. Casella mentions that Turner feels his momentum from the end of 2023 can translate to success in the upcoming slate.
Given his track record and some of his projections, Turner could be in store for a better 2024 season. The Phillies paid a ton of money for their shortstop of the future, so it would be encouraging to see him put together a season that will help propel the club to its third consecutive postseason appearance.