Phillies 2024 Season Preview: OF Brandon Marsh
Can Marsh improve on his 2023 numbers or will he take a step back?
Up next in our Philadelphia Phillies 2024 Season Preview series is outfielder Brandon Marsh.
Previous season previews: José Alvarado, Andrew Bellatti, Alec Bohm, Connor Brogdon, Nick Castellanos, Rodolfo Castro, Kody Clemens, Jake Cave, Dylan Covey, Seranthony Domínguez, Kolby Allard, Bryce Harper, Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering, Rafael Marchán
We'll examine Marsh's 2023 season and then evaluate projections for the 2024 season using the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems, which can be found on FanGraphs.
Brandon Marsh 2023 stats and 2024 projections
2023 Stats: 133 G, 472 PA, 12 HR, 60 RBI, 10 SB, 59 BB, .277/.372/.458, .829 OPS, 3.4 fWAR
2024 Steamer: 128 G, 503 PA, 12 HR, 55 RBI, 10 SB, 51 BB, .247/.329/.401, .730 OPS, 1.5 fWAR
2024 ZiPS DC: 128 G, 553 PA, 12 HR, 64 RBI, 13 SB, 54 BB, .248/.325/.394, .719 OPS, 1.5 fWAR
Brandon Marsh 2024 season preview
Brandon Marsh has become a cult favorite with Philadelphia Phillies fans since he was acquired in a trade deadline deal with the Los Angeles Angels in August 2022. With his trademark beard and long hair, Marsh is part of the group of talented young players, along with teammates Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott, on a team that features its fair share of veteran All-Stars and MVP candidates.
Marsh has been an important player on the Phillies teams that have reached the postseason in the last two years. In 2023, Marsh had a terrific second season as a Phillie, batting .277 with 12 home runs, 60 RBI, 10 steals, and a 3.4 fWAR. On the defensive side of the ball, Marsh spent the majority of 2023 as the team's primary center fielder until August, when he shifted to left field to accommodate top outfield prospect Johan Rojas. Marsh is likely to remain in left to begin 2024.
Over the course of two full MLB seasons, Marsh has been reliably consistent with the numbers he has put up while averaging just over 130 games per season in that span. While Marsh reached career highs in most statistical categories in 2023, is the 26-year-old ready to reach a new level in 2024?
Brandon Marsh is predicted to have a similar season in 2024
Using Fangraph's Steamer and ZiPS DC projections, Marsh doesn't have many offensive areas where he's expected to make any noticeable advances as a hitter this season. In fact, both models project Marsh's batting average to plummet roughly 30 points in 2024. Steamer has Marsh batting .247 in 503 plate appearances, and ZiPS DC predicts him to hit .248 in 553 at-bats.
Marsh hit 12 home runs in 2023, and both models predict the same total next season. Steamer projects Marsh to drive in 55 runs in 2024, while ZiPS DC has Marsh predicted to increase his RBI total from last year and drive in 64 this season. For those of you hoping Marsh taps into his speed more on the base paths, both models don't predict a breakout year as a base stealer. Steamer has Marsh matching his 2023 total of 10 steals, while ZiPS DC projects a slight increase with 13. Both models predict a decrease in fWAR from 3.4 to 1.5.
The projections indicate that Brandon Marsh might be the type of player who simply reaches his numbers each year, no better, no worse. Phillies fans will hope that these predictions get it all wrong and that Marsh takes another step as an offensive player in 2024.
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