Phillies 2024 Season Preview: 2B Bryson Stott

The next player in our Philadelphia Phillies 2024 Season Preview Series is second baseman Bryson Stott.

Previous season previews: José Alvarado, Andrew Bellatti, Alec Bohm, Connor Brogdon, Nick Castellanos, Rodolfo Castro, Kody Clemens, Jake Cave, Dylan Covey, Seranthony Domínguez, Darick Hall, Kolby Allard, Bryce Harper, Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering, Rafael Marchán, Brandon Marsh, Yunior Marté, Michael Mercado, Max Castillo, Nick Nelson, Aaron Nola, Luis Ortiz, Cristian Pache, J.T. Realmuto, Johan Rojas, Michael Rucker, Whit Merrifield, Cristopher Sánchez, Kyle Schwarber, Edmundo Sosa, Gregory Soto

Let’s first dig into Stott’s sophomore 2023 season and then take a look at how he is projected to do in 2024 using the popular Steamer and ZiPS projection systems, which can be found on FanGraphs.

Bryson Stott 2023 stats and 2024 projections

2023 Stats: 151 G, 640 PA, 15 HR, 62 RBI, 31 SB, .280/.329/.419 SLG, .747 OPS, 3.9 fWAR

2024 Steamer: 134 G, 555 PA, 14 HR, 62 RBI, 18 SB, .268/.328/.413 SLG, .741 OPS, 2.4 fWAR

2024 ZiPS DC: 134 G, 581 PA, 12 HR, 65 RBI, 21 SB, .257/.314/.382 SLG, .696 OPS, 2.5 fWAR

Bryson Stott 2024 Season Preview

Many thought Bryson Stott would struggle to find consistency in his second year as a big leaguer, playing second base for the first time in the majors. They thought the 26-year-old would need time to figure out how things work at this level and adjust, but it was just the opposite. He was arguably the most consistent player the Phillies rostered all year from Game 1 through Game 162.

Though he hit a bit of a slump towards the end of the year, he spent the majority of the season as the team leader in batting average and finished second (.280) just behind the face of the franchise, Bryce Harper. He led the team with 31 steals, beating out known speed demon Trea Turner. But maybe even more shocking, according to FanGraphs, he led all Phillies batters with an fWAR of 3.9.

This is all coming from a player with just 278 career MLB games under his belt.

Stott wasn’t just a consistent presence at the plate but astonishing in the field, where he played second base exclusively. In his first year manning second base, he was nominated for a Gold Glove, being one of the three finalists.

Stott made just five errors over 362 attempts for a .992 fielding percentage. According to FanGraphs, Stott ranked fourth in all of MLB with an 11.3 Def rating, ahead of the 2023 Gold Glove winner Nico Hoerner. He also finished with 6 DRS (defensive runs saved above average).

The projections actually think Stott will regress in 2024

Both Steamer and ZiPS projections anticipate the young second baseman will take a step back this year in most categories. Steamer thinks he will bat .268 with an OPS of .741, and ZiPS is even more conservative, with a batting average of .257 and an OPS of just .696. While the OPS is relatively in line with last year, the projections believe the batting average will take a big step back.

While both projection systems believe Stott will garner the same number or more RBI as last year, they think his home run total will come in lower in 2024. The walk numbers for Stott’s projections bode a little bit better. He ended 2023 with 39 walks, and ZiPS and Steamer anticipate he will surpass that number with 43 and 42 walks, respectively.

Reading between the lines, it seems that although Steamer and ZiPS don’t think Stott will have as many hits, they feel the hits will be timelier with runners on base, and he will accumulate more doubles and triples this season.

The projections predict Stott will run less, but we disagree

Lastly, and maybe most surprising, the models feel his stolen bases will decrease from the 31 he had in 2023 to the 18-21 range. While he led the team with steals in 2023, the expectation is he will finish behind Turner and rising prospect Johan Rojas this season. However, Stott has already spoken in spring training about wanting to run even more this year.

The 2024 projections didn’t do Stott any favors, expecting him to take a step back in most categories, including his fWAR (from 3.9 fWAR to 2.4-2.6 fWAR). But the Phillies are extraordinarily high on their young second baseman. He is ready to take the lead in his third year as a big leaguer, and with the team's high expectations, he will have to take on a larger role in the team's success.