Phillies 2024 Season Preview: DH Kyle Schwarber

The next entry in our Philadelphia Phillies 2024 Season Preview is designated hitter Kyle Schwarber.

Previous season previews: José Alvarado, Andrew Bellatti, Alec Bohm, Connor Brogdon, Nick Castellanos, Rodolfo Castro, Kody Clemens, Jake Cave, Dylan Covey, Seranthony Domínguez, Darick Hall, Kolby Allard, Bryce Harper, Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering, Rafael Marchán, Brandon Marsh, Yunior Marté, Michael Mercado, Max Castillo, Nick Nelson, Aaron Nola, Luis Ortiz, Cristian Pache, J.T. Realmuto, Michael Rucker, Whit Merrifield, Cristopher Sánchez

We'll start by examining Schwarber's 2023 season and then evaluate projections for the 2024 season using the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems, which can be found on FanGraphs.

Kyle Schwarber 2023 stats and 2024 projections

2023 Stats: 160 G, 720 PA, 47 HR, 104 RBI, 0 SB, 126 BB, 215 SO, .197/.343/.474, .817 OPS, 1.4 fWAR

2024 Steamer: 150 G, 688 PA, 42 HR, 91 RBI, 6 SB, 105 BB, 198 SO, .224/.350/.486, .836 OPS, 2.4 fWAR

2024 ZiPS DC: 154 G, 665 PA, 39 HR, 100 RBI, 2 SB, 101 BB, 195 SO, .218/.343/.476, .819 OPS, 2.1 fWAR

Kyle Schwarber 2024 season preview

Kyle Schwarber, 30, had one of the strangest seasons, stats-wise, in 2023. We all know about his 47 home runs, and it's been well-documented how those taters came with a .197 batting average and an MLB-high 215 strikeouts.

Schwarber hitting home runs isn't strange — he not only had the second-most home runs last season, but his 93 over the last two years is the second-most (93) behind Aaron Judge's 99. The fact that he hit below .200 was bizarre, especially in the first season with restrictions on defensive shifting. Many thought he'd improve on his 2022 .218 average.

Say what you will about his struggles with batting average, he put up career-highs in a number of offensive categories despite being hobbled by a wonky knee. He set highs in games (160), plate appearances (720), home runs (47), runs scored (108), RBI (104), and walks (126).

Schwarber projected for another big offensive year in 2024

Projections tend to be conservative when it comes to big, gaudy numbers. So, the fact that Steamer projects Schwarber to hit 42 long balls is impressive. He's second to Judge's 46 projected homers. We could easily see him putting up another 45 to 50 round-trippers despite him not even being mentioned in the home run king debate by MLB.com.

Steamer thinks he'll score around the same number of runs (106) but will drive in fewer with 91. ZiPS DC goes the other way, with 100 RBI but fewer runs scored, only down to 96, though. These counting stats will likely depend on where he hits in the Phillies lineup. But any way you shake it, Schwarber will probably have another big offensive year, especially if the Phillies are firing all cylinders for six months instead of just a couple like last season.

As for his confounding batting average, both models predict him to regress to where he was in 2022. ZiPS DC projects a replica .218 average, while Steamer goes a bit higher to .224. All the other projection systems put him between .221 and .227.

While the projections are bearish on the lefty slugger reaching the lofty heights of his 10 stolen bases in 2022, they think he'll run more than his two unsuccessful attempts last season. Steamer is the most optimistic, with six swipes. It could happen, especially after he said he feels better this spring than last year, per MLB.com's Todd Zolecki.

With less wear and tear expected from his move to the DH spot this season, expect the Phillies slugger to put up another big year at the plate.