Phillies: 2019 season predictions and fun pop bets
The Phillies stand to make a playoff run in 2019, but can they live up to lofty expectations?
After what feels like one of the longest offseasons in Phillies history, we have finally arrived at Opening Day!
After trading their former number one prospect, acquiring the best catcher in baseball, and signing arguably the best player in baseball the Phillies are expected to push for a playoff spot in 2019.
Site experts George Stockburger and John Town have come up with their own fun projections and prop bets (for entertainment purposes) going into the season.
We start with one of the young, electric arms in the Phillies bullpen and whether or not he can pump out some saves this year.
+/- 25.5 saves for Seranthony Dominguez
George (Under): The Phillies don’t have a designated closer going into 2019, so I find it hard to believe anyone will compile a significant number of saves this season. Between Seranthony Dominguez, Pat Neshek, David Robertson, and Hector Neris there will be plenty of save opportunities to go around.
Additionally, the Phillies might not find themselves in a lot of save situations thanks to their fantastic offense. Projected to be among the best in baseball, this lineup could put up five or six runs a game without trouble.
Neris had 26 saves in 2017 and Jeanmar Gomez (!) had 37 in 2016 (!!!) so it is possible the Phillies could have one guy stand out in the back of the bullpen, but with so many options I don’t see one guy getting a bulk of the saves.
John (Over): While the Phillies have not designated a closer for this year, they still know which players they will lean on late in tight games. The two key players expected to fill this role are Seranthony Dominguez and David Robertson, but Hector Neris and Adam Morgan will also get a chance to fill this role.
Despite the numerous players filling late-inning spots, I still feel like Dominguez will wind up getting more than 25 saves. This team has the potential to win 90-plus games, which leaves plenty of save opportunities.
So long as Dominguez remains effective throughout the season, he should get plenty of those save opportunities. What may help Dominguez rack up saves this year is his ability to pitch more than one inning. Seven of his 16 saves last year required going into a second inning. He can come into the game to finish off the eighth then round out the game in the ninth for the save.
It may not be by a lot, but I think Dominguez gets used enough this season to clear the 25-save mark.
+/- 175.5 hits for Jean Segura
George (Over): I don’t think Phillies fans appreciate how good Jean Segura is and how big of a piece he will be for many, many years. All the guy does is hit and find holes in defenses, making shifts virtually worthless. This trade is arguably the biggest of the offseason because it opened up so many options for Philadelphia, and it should pay off big time.
I can see how someone would take the under one this because Segura has only had one season with more than 180 hits. In his lone season with Arizona Segura led the league with 203 hits and other than that he’s had anywhere between 126-178 hits in a season.
The way this lineup is built with Bryce Harper likely hitting behind him, I see Segura getting a lot of good pitches to hit.
John (Over): While the Phillies had plenty of players last year who could get on base consistently, they lacked someone who could be counted on to get a hit when they needed it. Maikel Franco had the best batting average at .270; Jorge Alfaro was the only other player to hit above .260.
With Segura on board, the team now has someone who can reliably get hits. He is a career .287 hitter and has cleared the .300 mark in each of the last three seasons. Ben Revere was the last Phillie who hit .300 back in 2014.
If Segura plays all season, he will clear 175.5 hits easily. He had 178 hits last year playing in 144 games; he led the league with 203 hits when he played 153 games in 2016. You could set this line even higher and I’d probably still take the over.
+/- 100 home runs for Harper/Realmuto/Hoskins
George (Over): The firepower in this Phillies lineup is absolutely ridiculous, and the middle of the order with Harper, Rhys Hoskins, and J.T. Realmuto is a modern-day Murderer’s Row. Getting 100 home runs out of three players is a lot, especially considering Realmuto hasn’t hit more than 21 in a season.
The thing to remember with Realmuto is he played most of his career in a large stadium down in Miami. Of his 59 career home runs, 37 have been hit on the road and four have come at Citizens Bank Park. It’s not crazy to think the trio of Harper/Hoskins/Realmuto could hit 30 apiece this year.
Even if Realmuto hits 25 home runs I think Harper and Hoskins have the ability to hit 40 apiece. Harper has hit 40 home runs once in his career and came close last year. The friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park will certainly help him.
John (Over): As much as I want to be cautious and take the under, it’s just way too easy to talk myself into the over here. Looking at Realmuto, his home run total could significantly jump by moving to Citizens Bank Park this year. Had he played his home games at CBP in 2018, he would’ve finished with eight more home runs, increasing his total to 29.
If Realmuto finishes with about 30 home runs, Harper and Hoskins would only have to hit 35 home runs each to clear 100 total. Hoskins hit 34 last year even with his huge slump in May. If he can avoid that kind of slump this year, he should reach 35 or even more no problem.
Harper also hit 34 home runs last year. His total should also be aided by the new friendly confines of CBP. His career high was 42 in 2015 when he won the MVP award; there’s a decent chance he clears that mark this season.
This group of hitters should be deadly all season long, especially since they get to play 81 games in one of the more home run prone parks in the league.
+/- ERA of 3.50 for Nick Pivetta
George (Over): The hot name for most improved player in 2019 across baseball is Nick Pivetta. Some have even gone as far to label him a darkhorse for the Cy Young after the flashes he showed last season. If Pivetta takes a step forward I think he can be good, but not quite 3.50 or better ERA good.
Pivetta works off a very good fastball, but if he misses his spot then it’s bye-bye baseball. In his first two seasons, Pivetta has allowed 49 home runs, which is one in 84 percent of his career games pitched. Working in Citizens Bank Park doesn’t help keep the home run numbers down, so I don’t see Pivetta pushing an ERA below 3.50 this season.
John (Under): I am a subscriber to the Nick Pivetta breakout year theory. I liked his upside even during his rookie year doldrums. After making a step forward in 2018, I think he can take an even bigger one this year.
Pivetta suffered more than any other pitcher in the league from the defense behind him. Since Gabe Kapler classified Pivetta as a “fly ball pitcher” he felt comfortable deploying infields with Asdrubal Cabrera and other poor fielders. Opposing hitters had a .326 batting average on balls in play against Pivetta, the highest among qualified pitchers.
Metrics that adjust or simply ignore the defenders behind the pitcher show Pivetta should be a much better pitcher. His expected fielding-independent pitching (xFIP) and skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) were 14th and 13th-best, respectively, among qualifiers in the league.
With a better defense behind him, Pivetta’s ERA should drop considerably. He was able to cut his walk considerably from 2017 to 2018; if he can make a similar cut again this year, he should have no problem dropping his ERA below 3.50
+/- 4.5 All-Stars this season
George (Over): Had the number been 3.5 then the over would have been an easy one, but this is tough. Taking the over assumes productivity and health from Hoskins, Harper, Nola, and Realmuto, plus another player stepping up early in the season.
That’s a lot to ask for from one team, but it has been done before. Kansas City nearly had an entire lineup make the All-Star team in 2015 and finished with a total of seven representatives. Boston had five players and Houston had seven last year, so having a lot of players from one team isn’t uncommon.
Look for Segura, Odubel Herrera, or a pitcher to make an All-Star push at some point.
John (Under): While this team is talented, I only can see four players making it to the All-Star team. Aaron Nola and J.T. Realmuto are my two locks for the team, but from there the picture is fuzzy.
Rhys Hoskins has made a name for himself on the national stage, but the National League features other talented first basemen like Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto, and Paul Goldschmidt. Hoskins would really have to blow the doors off in the first half to beat out those guys.
I have a weird theory that Bryce Harper lost some standing due to the free agency process during the offseason. He and Manny Machado were the only people anyone in baseball talked about for almost four months, and some people have gotten sick of them. If Harper gets off to a slow start again this year, he may not get enough votes to make it into the game.
Even if all four of these guys make the game, then you are still betting on another to make it. Odubel Herrera, Jean Segura, Pat Neshek, and David Robertson have all been All-Stars before, but they may get overshadowed by the other players on the team. Nick Pivetta could make it with a breakout season, but that’s far from a guarantee.
Ultimately, there are just too many question marks for me to take this over.
Will Vince Velasquez be in the rotation on August 1?
George (No): As much as I would love to see Vinny Velo turn things around and be the dominant power arm we’ve seen at times, his leash will be short in 2019. Philadelphia is ready to compete for a playoff series this year and they can’t wait for Velasquez anymore. It’s time to put up or shut up.
Philadelphia has enough pitching depth to make a quick change and call-up Jerad Eickhoff, Drew Anderson, Ranger Suarez, Cole Irvin, or Enyel De Los Santos. If they really need a veteran arm then they’ll dip into the trade market.
Again, I think everyone wants to see Velasquez to well because he has the stuff to be a front line starting pitcher. Perhaps the Phillies move him out to the bullpen or swap him for a veteran pitcher at some point. Either way, I don’t see Velasquez sticking with the rotation through the summer.
John (No): As much as I have stuck up for Vince Velasquez in the past, I just don’t envision him staying in the rotation all season long. His spring training performance raised some major red flags and his designation as the fifth starter shows where he stands with the team.
If Velasquez doesn’t show significant improvements early on this season, the calls to move him to the bullpen will only grow louder. This team no longer has the time to let Velasquez develop over time in the rotation as they have in years past. If he can succeed and be a capable fifth starter, great; it’s just hard to predict that right now.
Jerad Eickhoff is waiting for the chance to come up and steal Velasquez’s spot after losing his to Zach Eflin last year. Velasquez really doesn’t have any room for error anymore.
+/- 2.5 notable trades made by Matt Klentak
George (Over): Matt Klentak was a buyer last summer, picking up veterans Asdrubal Cabrera, Justin Bour, Luis Avilan, Jose Bautista, Aaron Loup, and Wilson Ramos. While most of those deals didn’t work out it proved that Klentak can get deals done when the time is right.
This goes without saying that a trade has to be notable, so I’m not counting Jack Zoellner to the Baltimore Orioles for Future Considerations. This has to be for an everyday contributor or a starting pitcher.
I anticipate Klentak making a move for a starter, reliever, and at least one bench bat this summer.
John (Over): So long as this team is competitive when the trade deadline rolls around, they should make at least three trades. The biggest trade will likely come to the starting rotation. The team opted to roll with the same rotation they had last year, focusing on position players with their additions. However, if the rotation doesn’t perform as well as it did last year, the team will likely have to make a trade to supplant the rotation.
Another move could come if Scott Kingery can’t find some success as the backup infielder. If the team feels they need to demote him to figure things out, they could make a minor trade to replace him. By the same token, if Kingery performs well, Cesar Hernandez or Maikel Franco could be traded to clear a spot in the lineup.
Who knows what could happen this year that would require a trade? If the front office is truly ready to push all their chips in for a playoff run, they will make any and every move they can to ensure the club succeeds.
+/- 86.5 wins
George (Over): In such a tough division you can go either way on how many wins the Phillies finish with this year. Because they play the Marlins so many times I expect them to rack up wins and be in a situation like the American League East was last year where three teams won at least 90 games.
I think the Phillies can win just about what the over/under we set is and finish with 88 wins in 2019. That would be a solid eight-game jump from last year after a historic 14 game leap from the year before.
Again, they’ll be right on the line, but I’ll take the over on wins.
John (Over): I am very confident about the number of wins this team will have. The team is projecting to finish around the 90-win mark, maybe one or two fewer. Either way, they should have 87 or more wins this season.
Before the team’s late August and September collapse last year, they were on pace to win 90 games. The new talent on the roster should prevent such a collapse and possibly even add onto that potential win total.
The only thing stopping this team from reaching the over is the division itself. The Braves, Nationals, and Mets could pose a significant challenge, but they all could have much worse seasons than predicted, as Washington did last year. Of course, the same could be true for the Phillies, but I don’t expect that to happen.
The 2019 Phillies not only have the chance to be the first winning team since 2011, but they will do their best to come close to the win total of that 2011 squad.
Will Gabe Kapler be fired?
George (No): A lot would have to go wrong for the Phillies to fire Gabe Kapler after one season. There’d have to be a Bobby Valentine clubhouse meltdown or an incredible losing streak early in the season for Kapler to be put on the chopping block.
That being said if the Phillies don’t win there will be calls for Kapler’s job. The fans generally don’t support the analytic, coconut-oil enthusiast, player-friendly manager unless he’s winning.
I think a lot will change on the field this year because Kapler has more established players to work with. A lineup of this caliber should require less tinkering from the manager.
If the Phillies collapse again this summer, it wouldn’t shock me to see Kapler shipped out, but I don’t anticipate it happening.
More from Phillies News
- Bryce Harper’s absence should lead to Phillies lineup tinkering
- Pirates’ bizarre Vince Velasquez hype video will make Phillies fans laugh
- Acquiring Brandon Marsh gave the Phillies flexibility
- Former Phillies starter Zach Eflin shares heartwarming goodbye message
- Is Rhys Hoskins the future at first base for the Phillies beyond 2023?
John (No): There’s nothing some in this fanbase would love more than to see Gabe Kapler’s grin be wiped off his face by a firing. They only got more ammunition when he was voted by players the manager they least wanted to play for.
Everything would have to go completely wrong this year for Kapler to be fired. If anything, his job should be much easier this year with a more talented roster.
As I stated on the last slide, projections indicate that the Phillies should finish the year with around 90 wins; who fires their manager after a 10-win improvement?
Barring just everyone on the team falling flat on their face, the only reasonable explanation for the team finishing with a losing record will be injuries, which you can’t blame Kapler for. If the Phillies completely bottom out, then we can have the discussion about firing Kapler, but that scenario is very unlikely.
Will the Phillies win the National League East
George (No): I’ve gone back and forth on this more than I thought, but ultimately I think the Phillies will make the playoffs but not clinch the division title.
The National League East is arguably the hardest division in baseball after the Nationals, Braves, and Mets all improved. Even without Harper, I think the Nationals can be a tough team with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin leading the rotation. Juan Soto and Victor Robles are a young dynamic duo in the outfield that should replace Harper’s production.
Thankfully the Phillies should pick up 12-15 wins against the Marlins in their 19 games this year, but the rest of the East will be a tough fight ’til the end.
Like I said earlier the National League East will play out similarly to the American League East in 2019 and have a lot of very good teams at the top. The final road series of the year is a four-game bout in Washington, and I think that will essentially be a playoff series.
Although, finishing the year with three games at home versus Miami won’t hurt the playoff chances.
More from That Balls Outta Here
- Prospect Andrew Baker could help Phillies bullpen in 2023
- Bryce Harper’s absence should lead to Phillies lineup tinkering
- Phillies rumors: Club targets Seth Lugo for possible bullpen role
- Pirates’ bizarre Vince Velasquez hype video will make Phillies fans laugh
- Acquiring Brandon Marsh gave the Phillies flexibility
John (Yes): I do think the Phillies will be able to win the NL East. By no means will it be by a wide margin, but there’s no reason to be pessimistic about their chances.
The Braves obviously get some credit as the reigning division champs, but it was borderline handed to them by the Phillies last year. Their pitching staff is a major question mark, and a bad pitching staff can doom a team quickly.
The Marlins…are the Marlins. Next.
The Mets made some flashy moves during the offseason, but they were the only team in the division who didn’t trade away every asset they had to finish with a worse record than Philadelphia.
They may have made strides, but they aren’t quite fearsome division contenders yet.
The Nationals are the team I am most worried about, but they showed last year they are vulnerable. They have been the most common pick to win the division, but they were last year too before stumbling up until the end of the season.
While this division will be competitive, I think the Phillies have enough to get over the hump and win it for the first time in eight years.
Next. 10 Keys for Winning the NL East. dark
Enjoy what should be a fun season of Phillies baseball and remember to follow TBOH on Facebook and Twitter for stories, updates, and reactions all season long!