Phillies 2019 season preview: Relief pitcher Hector Neris
After a stellar 2016 and 2017, Hector Neris suffered the first setback of his Phillies career in 2018. Will the veteran pitcher return to form in 2019?
I love this guy. I felt horrible watching him struggle so much at the beginning of the year. Hector Neris has been such an important piece in the bullpen the last three years and was an absolute force in the two seasons where he pitched 70+ innings.
On a 71-win team in 2016, Neris led the team in ERA (2.58) and strikeouts per nine innings (11.4), while primarily acting as the setup man to Jeanmar Gomez. When Gomez struggled in 2017, and Joaquin Benoit wasn’t any better, Neris was thrust into the full-time closer role for the second half of the year. He posted a 2.48 ERA with 19 saves, with 44 strikeouts in 36 innings.
Last season, Neris struggled to maintain the success he had in the previous two. Where he really struggled was the location of his fastball. His ability to locate his fastball up in the zone was a lethal weapon in 2016 and 2017 when he was throwing his split over 50% of the time, and his fastball under 40%.
Neris used his splitter and fastball more in 2018 which led to the fifth-worst barrel percentage in the league for pitchers with 100+ batted ball events (11.8%). Hitters also were able to connect at their sweet spot a remarkable 44.5% of the time, second-worst in the league (100+ BBE). Neris was demoted Triple-A in June to recover his 2016/2017 performance.
I was thrilled to see Neris return to form when he was called back up in August. Posting a 2.04 ERA, with 35 strikeouts and only 11 hits from August to October, Neris thrived in his late-game role while not serving as the closer. He struck out 51% of the batters he faced, while only giving up a 0.172 batting average and only five walks to 69 plate appearances. Most importantly, he didn’t allow a single home run after giving up 11 from April to July.
Neris’s role in 2019
With the emergence of the flame-throwing Seranthony Dominguez and the acquisition of David Robertson, I think it’s safe to assume that Neris won’t be closing in 2019. This will help his game tremendously. Throughout his career, Neris has had a lot of success in the setup role, or in any late-game role outside of closer. I believe Neris will put last year’s early-season struggles behind him and come out with his dominant split as he did in 2017.
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Neris will also have to adopt the role of mentor for the younger members of this staff. He is entering his age-30 season and has been in the league since 2014 (he pitched one inning in 2014, and got the win). Dominguez, Victor Arano, Austin Davis and other young bullpen guys will look to the veterans for stability and leadership. Believe it or not, Neris and Adam Morgan are the longest tenured pitchers in the bullpen, and will need to show them the way to succeed in Philadelphia.
Neris will also be relied on to be the anticoagulant of the bullpen. For all you non-science people, that means he’ll be the guy Kapler uses to stop the bleeding. He has made a living dominating with runners in scoring position (RISP), with a .218 batting average against and 84 strikeouts. I don’t think he’ll be become a situational pitcher, and he’s best suited to be the seventh or ninth inning guy, but his experience allows Kapler to trust him in big game situations.
Projections for Neris in 2019
Every pitcher in their career has a step-back moment, where they are forced to evaluate themselves and make adjustments. After that, they either make the adjustments and survive a little longer, or they see an end to their career. Neris proved that he could make the adjustments and survive, which is what I anticipate seeing from him in 2019. His workload will decrease, but I believe that will make his effectiveness that much greater.
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In terms of stats, here’s how I see Neris’ 2019 going: 65 innings, a 2.80 ERA with 80 strikeouts and 25 walks. I believe he’ll cut down his home runs allowed to just seven, and allow a batting average against of .210.
I really enjoy watching Neris pitch. And I believe that he can regain the form he had in 2016-2017. The key to that is controlling his split, which is his best pitch. If he can throw that for strikes, it will set up the rest of his arsenal, including his lively fastball upstairs. I also think that he learned from his wake-up call after going down to Triple-A in the middle of the season. Some guys just need time to figure their stuff out.
His bounce back at the end of the season showed me that he has the resolve to be a leader in this bullpen.
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Look for Hector Neris to be among the league leaders in strikeouts-per-nine innings again in 2019, as he finished fifth-last season. When his fastball-splitter combo is working well, there is little opposing hitters can do.