That Balls Outta Here
FanSided

Phillies: 2019 season predictions and fun pop bets

By George Stockburger

PHILADELPHIA, PA - APRIL 07: The Phillie Phanatic performs before an opening day game between the Philadelphia Phillies the Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park on April 7, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - APRIL 07: The Phillie Phanatic performs before an opening day game between the Philadelphia Phillies the Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park on April 7, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /
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WASHINGTON, DC – JUNE 24: Nick Pivetta #43 of the Philadelphia Phillies pitches in the first inning against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on June 24, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC – JUNE 24: Nick Pivetta #43 of the Philadelphia Phillies pitches in the first inning against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on June 24, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) /

+/- ERA of 3.50 for Nick Pivetta

George (Over): The hot name for most improved player in 2019 across baseball is Nick Pivetta. Some have even gone as far to label him a darkhorse for the Cy Young after the flashes he showed last season. If Pivetta takes a step forward I think he can be good, but not quite 3.50 or better ERA good.

Pivetta works off a very good fastball, but if he misses his spot then it’s bye-bye baseball. In his first two seasons, Pivetta has allowed 49 home runs, which is one in 84 percent of his career games pitched. Working in Citizens Bank Park doesn’t help keep the home run numbers down, so I don’t see Pivetta pushing an ERA below 3.50 this season.

John (Under): I am a subscriber to the Nick Pivetta breakout year theory. I liked his upside even during his rookie year doldrums. After making a step forward in 2018, I think he can take an even bigger one this year.

Pivetta suffered more than any other pitcher in the league from the defense behind him. Since Gabe Kapler classified Pivetta as a “fly ball pitcher” he felt comfortable deploying infields with Asdrubal Cabrera and other poor fielders. Opposing hitters had a .326 batting average on balls in play against Pivetta, the highest among qualified pitchers.

Metrics that adjust or simply ignore the defenders behind the pitcher show Pivetta should be a much better pitcher. His expected fielding-independent pitching (xFIP) and skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) were 14th and 13th-best, respectively, among qualifiers in the league.

With a better defense behind him, Pivetta’s ERA should drop considerably. He was able to cut his walk considerably from 2017 to 2018; if he can make a similar cut again this year, he should have no problem dropping his ERA below 3.50

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