+/- 100 home runs for Harper/Realmuto/Hoskins
George (Over): The firepower in this Phillies lineup is absolutely ridiculous, and the middle of the order with Harper, Rhys Hoskins, and J.T. Realmuto is a modern-day Murderer’s Row. Getting 100 home runs out of three players is a lot, especially considering Realmuto hasn’t hit more than 21 in a season.
The thing to remember with Realmuto is he played most of his career in a large stadium down in Miami. Of his 59 career home runs, 37 have been hit on the road and four have come at Citizens Bank Park. It’s not crazy to think the trio of Harper/Hoskins/Realmuto could hit 30 apiece this year.
Even if Realmuto hits 25 home runs I think Harper and Hoskins have the ability to hit 40 apiece. Harper has hit 40 home runs once in his career and came close last year. The friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park will certainly help him.
John (Over): As much as I want to be cautious and take the under, it’s just way too easy to talk myself into the over here. Looking at Realmuto, his home run total could significantly jump by moving to Citizens Bank Park this year. Had he played his home games at CBP in 2018, he would’ve finished with eight more home runs, increasing his total to 29.
If Realmuto finishes with about 30 home runs, Harper and Hoskins would only have to hit 35 home runs each to clear 100 total. Hoskins hit 34 last year even with his huge slump in May. If he can avoid that kind of slump this year, he should reach 35 or even more no problem.
Harper also hit 34 home runs last year. His total should also be aided by the new friendly confines of CBP. His career high was 42 in 2015 when he won the MVP award; there’s a decent chance he clears that mark this season.
This group of hitters should be deadly all season long, especially since they get to play 81 games in one of the more home run prone parks in the league.