Phillies: Free agents who could be tricks or treats this offseason
The Phillies have a ton of options in free agency this offseason, but which ones should they avoid and which ones should they target?
Phillies general manager Matt Klentak has several areas to focus on this offseason when it comes to making the Phillies a World Series contender. The rotation needs at least two starting pitchers, the bullpen needs one or two reliable veterans to anchor late games, and there are questions across the lineup.
The Phillies will have a lot of options to turn towards this offseason, especially on the free agent market. After going all-in and spending stupid money on Bryce Harper, David Robertson, and Andrew McCutchen, Phillies owner John Middleton is expected to spend big once again.
Just as we saw last season, free agents can be tricks (Robertson) or treats (Harper). Who will those players be this offseason?
Here are a couple of names to target and avoid if you’re the Phillies front office.
Trick: Rich Hill, SP
Rich Hill has been an effective left-handed starting pitcher after blossoming in his late 30’s for Oakland. Since the 2016 season Hill has won 39 games with a 3.00 ERA for the A’s and Dodgers.
While the Phillies could certainly use a left-handed starter, Hill turns 40 and is coming off a season where he made just 13 appearances due to injuries. Had he stayed healthy and maybe been a couple of years younger, Hill would be the perfect addition for the Phillies rotation, a modern-day Jamie Moyer. But coming off knee and elbow injuries and turning 40 isn’t the combination the Phillies need if they want to win in 2020.
Treat: Martin Prado, INF
While there have been rumors of Prado possibly retiring this offseason, the 36-year-old do-it-all player would be a tremendous addition to the Phillies staff. Prado played for Joe Girardi in New York and has played every position except center field and catcher in his 14-year career, although the last couple of years he’s been limited to first and third base.
Prado would fill the role of Sean Rodriguez on the Phillies bench and be another leader for a relatively young clubhouse. He won’t be a guy the organization has to heavily rely on to play 120+ games and could fill in time at third should the Phillies not sign Anthony Rendon.
Trick: Josh Donaldson
The Phillies are more than likely moving on from Maikel Franco this offseason after years of waiting for their former top prospect to blossom into the MVP candidate many projected him to be.
By moving on from Franco the Phillies have several options when it comes to who will start at third base on opening day. Top prospect Alec Bohm hasn’t played above Double-A, although he performed well in the Arizona Fall League.
Scott Kingery bounced between center field and third, but his true position is second base.
Josh Donaldson, a former MVP and All-Star, would fit into the middle of the Phillies lineup as another power bat, but at what cost and for how long? Bohm isn’t ready yet, but he shouldn’t be caught in a logjam if the Phillies sign Donaldson, who turns 34 this offseason, to a multi-year contract.
Donaldson has also dealt with injuries in recent years, playing just 52 games in 2018 and 113 the year before that. He’ll be another year older with a questionable injury history, a recipe for disaster.
The Phillies have missed on a lot of their first round picks, but it feels like Bohm will finally break the spell. Unless Donaldson signs a one-year deal,which he likely won’t, it’s not the right move given the potential of Bohm and Donaldson’s injury history.
Treat: Gerrit Cole, SP
While the Astros didn’t go to Gerrit Cole out of the bullpen in the World Series, he proved his worth throughout the postseason for Houston. The number one overall pick in 2011 went to Pittsburgh and had his ups and downs, but once he reached the Astros Cole proved he was one of the best pitchers in baseball, potentially leading to a Cy Young in 2019.
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The Phillies need to add starting pitching this offseason, whether through free agency or the trade market. At this point they need at least two starting pitchers to go with Aaron Nola, a deteriorating Jake Arrieta, and possibly Zach Eflin.
Cole might be the best starting pitcher to hit the free agent market since Max Scherzer in 2015. He’s coming off a season where he led baseball with 326 strikeouts and a 2.50 ERA while winning 20 games for the Astros.
The price tag for Cole will be astronomical, likely the largest contract given to a pitcher in baseball history. He just turned 29-years-old and has almost no injury history in his seven year career with Pittsburgh and Houston. He appears to be just hitting his prime, the perfect time to hit the open market.
While giving a pitcher a six or seven year contract is very risky, we just saw what that did for the Nationals when they signed Scherzer in 2015. In the right situation, Cole can be the greatest treat available this offseason. Unfortunately, the buzz around baseball is that he wants to go back to California, giving the Angels a big advantage, but Middleton’s stupid money could change that and bring him back to the Keystone State.
Trick: Dellin Betances, RP
Dellin Betances was one of five options we highlighted as players who could be reunited with Joe Girardi this offseason. A very good set-up man for the Yankees, Betances has had an ERA under 3.10 each of the last five years for New York, pitching effectively in the world’s biggest and most polarizing market.
The injury bug bit Betances bad in 2019, limiting him to two-thirds of an inning in one appearance for New York. A lingering shoulder injury benched him in March and he partially tore his left Achilles tendon when he returned in late September.
Betances is expected to be ready for spring training, but we’ve seen pitchers who have to rehab during the offseason struggle to adjust once the season starts. Their schedule is thrown off and they’re behind the 8-ball to start the year.
Philadelphia has had a myriad of issues when it comes to free agent relief pitchers, as recently as Betance’s former teammate David Robertson and including Pat Neshek, Tommy Hunter, and Juan Nicasio.
Unless Betance signs a one year “prove it deal”, the Phillies should stay away.
Treat: Todd Frazier, 3B
There aren’t a ton of great bats the Phillies could sign this offseason. They’re set in the corner outfield spots with Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen, at first base with Rhys Hoskins, and at catcher with J.T. Realmuto. Jean Segura had a polarizing first season in Philadelphia, but his contract should lead him back as the starting shortstop.
Second base, third base, and center field are questions going into the offseason, and while the Phillies have some in-house answers, they might need to look around for upgrades.
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While Todd Frazier isn’t a tremendous upgrade who would rock the baseball world, he could be a quiet signing who locks down the third base position until Alec Bohm is ready to come up midway or late in the season. Even if Bohm comes up Frazier is a big bat off the bench from the right-hand side of the plate, something the Phillies don’t have.
Another guy who played for Girardi, Frazier would pummel the short deck in left field. Frazier hit four home runs in seven games at Citizens Bank Park last season and hit all but 3 of his 21 home runs to left field for the New York Mets.
Frazier is also a solid clubhouse guy and South Jersey native, making this somewhat of a homecoming. He made $9 million with the Mets last year and could make similar money in Philadelphia.