Phillies now have worse odds to make playoffs than Mets
The odds of the Phillies making the playoffs grow smaller every day, and to add insult to injury, the resurgent Mets now have better playoff odds.
While the Phillies were plummeting out of first place and into the middle of the division in June, at least fans could say, “It could be worse; we could be the Mets.” Well, they may now be the ones looking down on us.
The Mets are now the hottest team in baseball, going 9-1 in their last ten games and 15-5 in their previous 20 games, both the best of any team league-wide. On top of that, they have the sixth-best record in their last 30 games (18-12), while Philadelphia ranks 15th in their previous 30 games (15-15).
With the Mets heating up, their playoff odds have increased dramatically. On July 24, their playoff odds bottomed out to 3.9% while Philadelphia’s were 28.3%. Now the tables have turned as the Mets’ odds of making the playoffs are 29.6% while Philadelphia’s are 21.4% according to Fangraphs.
More from That Balls Outta Here
- 11 Free-agent deals the Philadelphia Phillies wish fell through
- Phillies-Mets owners’ rivalry grows after shocking Carlos Correa deal
- Could Rich Hill become ‘Jamie Moyer 2.0’ in Phillies rotation?
- Does Bailey Falter have a future in Phillies’ rotation?
- Prospect Andrew Baker could help Phillies bullpen in 2023
However, according to FiveThirtyEight, Philadelphia still has better playoff odds than the Mets at 37% compared to 24%. On the other hand, the Mets rank better in FiveThirtyEight’s team rating system, jumping up seven spots in the last week. Soon enough, their playoff odds could be better.
While their playoff odds are increasing, the Mets still have a losing record at 55-56 while the Phillies are 58-53 and tied for second in the division. They also are tied for the second wild card while the Mets are three games back with three teams ahead of them. However, that could quickly change, especially with how well the Mets are playing.
For better or worse, the Mets were aggressive at the deadline, adding Marcus Stroman to an already fearsome rotation. Plus, they kept Zack Wheeler and sent Jason Vargas to Philly, doubling down on a playoff run that seemed like a longshot just a few weeks ago.
Meanwhile, the Phillies have been stuck in neutral for the last two months. They added Vargas and Drew Smyly, hoping they can piece together a semblance of a starting rotation for the rest of the season. The offense continues to sputter without an end in sight.
There’s still a good amount of season remaining, but with the way things are trending, they are looking better for the Mets than they are for the Phillies.