That Balls Outta Here
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Phillies starting rotation woes won’t be fixed overnight

By John Town

NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 08: Pitcher Luis Avilan #70 of the Philadelphia Phillies looks out as Michael Conforto #30 of the New York Mets rounds third base after he hit a home run against during the eighth inning of a game at Citi Field on September 8, 2018 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. The Mets defeated the Phillies 10-5. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 08: Pitcher Luis Avilan #70 of the Philadelphia Phillies looks out as Michael Conforto #30 of the New York Mets rounds third base after he hit a home run against during the eighth inning of a game at Citi Field on September 8, 2018 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. The Mets defeated the Phillies 10-5. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /
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The Phillies starting rotation has a lot of issues, but it’s unlikely that the team will be able to alleviate their pitching woes anytime soon.

It’s hard to pinpoint any one issue that has led to the disappointing 46-42 record the Phillies currently have. The team’s pitching woes cannot be understated though and have played a significant part in the club’s performance.

Philadelphia’s starting rotation has been notably inconsistent with starters cycling in and out of it as the season has progressed. This has led to that has fallen well into the bottom half of the league.

Among all 30 teams, Philadelphia’s starters rank 17th in ERA, 20th in strikeout-to-walk ratio, 21st in skill-interactive ERA, and 25th in fielding-independent pitching and Fangraphs wins above replacement. Among the teams with less valuable rotations, only the Angels have a winning record while all the others are cellar-dwellers.

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At best, Philadelphia has two above-average starters right now. Aaron Nola started poorly but has since returned to standard form since May. Zach Eflin has the staff’s best ERA, but his numbers have dropped off considerably since mid-May.

The rest of the rotation has done nothing to inspire confidence. Jake Arrieta managed a strong start despite some glaring issues. His chickens have since come to roost with a 5.23 ERA from his fifth start of the season on.

The team should be happy to get out from under his contract soon.

Nick Pivetta was supposed to be a breakout pitcher this year, and plenty of people, including myself, were caught up in the hype. Aside from a three-game stretch when he returned from the minors, he has mostly been a disappointment. He gave up six runs on five hits and two home runs Wednesday night, and that was one of his better starts of the year.

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Jerad Eickhoff has bounced between Triple-A, the major-league rotation, and the bullpen throughout the year. In the month before he went on the injured list, he had a 10.16 ERA. Vince Velasquez has also cycled through the rotation without much success.

Philadelphia gambled that their starting rotation is good enough to support their revamped offense. That gamble failed miserably, and they now need to find a way to address it. Unfortunately, any fixes won’t come overnight.

There aren’t any high-level pitching prospects knocking on the doorstep to make a difference. Cole Irvin and Enyel De Los Santos have both started games this year without much success.

Adonis Medina has not reached Triple-A while JoJo Romero posted a 9.64 ERA in seven starts for Lehigh Valley.

Starting pitching will be in high demand at the trade deadline, making it difficult for Philadelphia to upgrade the rotation without losing significant assets.

The top targets are either rentals (Madison Bumgarner) or experiencing breakout seasons, inflating their value (Mike Minor, Matthew Boyd).

Free agency will hold some intriguing targets like Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, and Rich Hill, but none of them will be able to fill three holes in the rotation at once. The team cannot commit all their resources to the rotation either with potential holes at third base and in center field.

In the short-term, the team better hope the starting pitching can at least be league average or that their offense can make up for it. That is a big ask for an offense that has mostly disappointed this year.

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Looking long-term, it will likely require some combination of outside acquisitions and improvement from within to make the starting rotation as an asset to the team once again.

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