Phillies: Aaron Nola’s arsenal hurt by lower seams on baseball?

This year’s baseballs have lower seams than previous seasons, and it could be the reason Phillies starter Aaron Nola hasn’t been the same pitcher.

Something is off with Aaron Nola this year. Last season, not only was he the Phillies ace, he was a Cy Young finalist. He seemed to have turned a corner in May, but he fell back off in June, albeit ending the month with two ten-strikeout performances.

In 17 starts this year, Nola has a 4.22 ERA, 4.16 fielding-independent pitching, 1.365 WHIP, 2.89 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and 1.3 home runs allowed per nine innings. All of these numbers are significantly worse than last year with his WHIP and FIP both being career worsts.

While Nola’s numbers are better after the first month of the season, he’s still a far cry from the pitcher he was in 2018 and even the second half of 2017. So what’s impacting his performance this year?

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One of the root causes of Nola’s struggles may be entirely out of his control. Several pitchers have stated that the seams on baseballs are lower this year, making it much harder to grip. While this is one of the prominent reasons home runs are on the rise, it can also have an impact on pitchers.

Pitchers like Aaron Nola rely on control and movement rather than overpowering velocity to beat opposing hitters.

However, with lower seams, it’s harder to get a strong grip, and in effect, get more movement on pitches.

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The numbers back up this idea as well when looking at Aaron Nola’s Brooks Baseball pitch movement. Nola’s curveball, his primary secondary pitch, is breaking less than previous seasons. His average dragless horizontal movement of 13.32 inches towards left-handed hitters and dragless vertical movement with gravity of 48.5 inches down are both the worst of his career.

Further, his changeup isn’t getting as much horizontal movement as well, dropping 29.81 inches this year versus 32.09 last year. His sinker is also dropping about an inch less. Without that movement, Nola’s arsenal simply isn’t as impressive.

Nola’s whiff rate is down for each of his pitches while opposing hitters are slugging far better against his fastball and sinker. All of his pitches besides his curveball have negative Pitch Info pitch values, but his curveball is still graded out as a far worse pitch compared to last year.

Altogether, Nola’s diminished arsenal is negatively impacting his performance on the mound. The worst part is there may not be anything he can do about it.