Phillies best and worst-case scenarios for 2018 season
There are a lot of things that could go very right or very wrong this season for the Phillies. What would happen in these best and worst-case scenarios?
Opening Day is finally here Phillies fans! After a long, slow offseason and more than a month of spring training, baseball that matters is officially upon us. This season is the closest the club has been to being potential playoff contenders in at least five years.
A lot could go very right for this team this year. There is a boatload of young talent with potential as well as established veterans to support them. At the same time, there is no guarantee that young talent fulfills their potential and the veterans could fail to produce as they have in years past.
There are so many ways this season could go right or go wrong for Philadelphia. Let’s take a look at best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios for this year.
Best-case scenario
In Philadelphia’s best-case scenario, all their young talent clicks this year. J.P. Crawford hits like he did in the second half of the year in Triple-A. Scott Kingery mashes like he did to start 2017 in Double-A. Jorge Alfaro keeps his strikeouts within reason and knocks 20 home runs all while shutting down the basepaths. Rhys Hoskins continues to knock home runs and pushes himself into All-Star consideration in just his second year.
In the outfield, manager Gabe Kapler is able to juggle getting playing time for Hoskins, Aaron Altherr, Nick Williams, and Odubel Herrera. They all have strong seasons with Altherr remaining healthy.
The top of the lineup will be strong with Carlos Santana and Cesar Hernandez continuing to post on-base percentages well above .350. Maikel Franco finally learns to drive the ball effectively and is able to stave off the Manny Machado pressure.
Meanwhile, Jake Arrieta pitches like he did in the second half last year, forming a solid one-two punch with Aaron Nola. Jerad Eickhoff comes back pitching like he did in 2016 while Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta find some semblance of command.
The bullpen winds up being a key strength for the team as Kapler uses his relievers effectively. Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter are worth the money and shut down the opposition in high-leverage situations. Hector Neris, Luis Garcia, and Adam Morgan all continue their strong seasons in relief.
If all these things go right, Philadelphia should easily outperform their 81-81 projection. A wild-card would certainly be within reach as they are able to beat up on the Marlins and Braves. If the Nationals completely collapse and waste the last year of Bryce Harper, the division may somehow even be within reach.
Worst-case scenario
For all the things that could go wrong this year, they could easily go wrong too. The concerns that J.P. Crawford can’t hit in the majors turn out to be true as he fails to hit for average. Scott Kingery turns out to need more time in Triple-A before he is ready to hit in the majors. All Jorge Alfaro can do is strike out while Rhys Hoskins hits a major sophomore slump.
More from Phillies News
- Phillies-Mets owners’ rivalry grows after shocking Carlos Correa deal
- Could Rich Hill become ‘Jamie Moyer 2.0’ in Phillies rotation?
- Does Bailey Falter have a future in Phillies’ rotation?
- Bryce Harper’s absence should lead to Phillies lineup tinkering
- Pirates’ bizarre Vince Velasquez hype video will make Phillies fans laugh
Injuries decimate the starting rotation as Jerad Eickhoff and Vince Velasquez fail to stay healthy yet again. Jake Arrieta continues his decline as we all feared. Aaron Nola isn’t able to replicate his success from 2017.
Luis Garcia and Adam Morgan’s 2017 seasons turn out to be flukes as they return to league-average performance. Tommy Hunter’s career season last year turns out to be his peak while age finally starts taking its toll on Pat Neshek.
The other young pitchers in the bullpen aren’t able to pick up the slack as it becomes just as unreliable as it was to start the 2017 season.
Ultimately, the team isn’t able to improve much from their 66-win season last year. They may clear 70 wins, but they will be out of wild-card contention by the deadline and wind up selling yet again.
Most likely scenario
Expecting everything to go perfectly for this team is unreasonable, but expecting them to completely bottom out is just being unnecessarily pessimistic. Most projections have them near a .500 season, and that’s about what we should expect from them.
More from That Balls Outta Here
- 11 Free-agent deals the Philadelphia Phillies wish fell through
- Phillies-Mets owners’ rivalry grows after shocking Carlos Correa deal
- Could Rich Hill become ‘Jamie Moyer 2.0’ in Phillies rotation?
- Does Bailey Falter have a future in Phillies’ rotation?
- Prospect Andrew Baker could help Phillies bullpen in 2023
Some things will definitely go right for them. The lineup has the potential to carry this team and is certainly more potent than it was a year ago. Rhys Hoskins certainly won’t hit home runs at a pace like he did last year, but he should still hover around 25-30 by season’s end. J.P. Crawford and Scott Kingery should contribute to at least some degree this year.
Aaron Nola has shown no signs that last season was a one-time thing and he should lead this rotation. Jake Arrieta may never pitch again like he did in 2014 or 2015, but expecting two to three wins above replacement from him isn’t too much to ask.
The hardest thing to predict will be how the back end of the rotation will perform. Jerad Eickhoff has another injury to deal with, while Vince Velasquez’s future as a starter remains in question. Nick Pivetta has strong stuff but can’t control it. Ben Lively doesn’t have much upside but can give you solid innings at times. Some of these guys may improve; some may struggle. That’s about as much I can confidently say.
Next: Phillies release Opening Day starting lineup
This may not be the year the Phillies return to the playoffs, but they should at least stay relevant until September. A deadline acquisition could push them into the second wild-card spot, but they may wind up falling short to the Diamondbacks, Rockies, Brewers, or Cardinals.