DENVER, CO - AUGUST 06: Starting pitcher Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws in the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on August 6, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO – AUGUST 06: Starting pitcher Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws in the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on August 6, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /
The Phillies have had varying degrees of success with their first round picks, with some doing well this season and others struggling.
Much of the reason why the Phillies have fallen off the map in performance in recent years is their lack of success in the draft. They often targeted high-upside, high-risk players early on in the draft. The problem with that strategy was that many of those players bottomed out and never made a major-league impact. That left the team without a minor-league pipeline and any way to bring in new talent.
The best chance for major-league talent comes in the first round of the draft and Philadelphia got little from their first round picks after 2002. The focus is now on these picks once again as the team tries to rebuild and gear up for a potential playoff run in a few years. There are a few still in the system, and I figure it’s time to take a look at how they are doing this season and what it means for the team’s future.
2012: Shane Watson
The Phillies had two picks in 2012 in the first supplemental round of the draft because they lost Ryan Madson and Raul Ibanez in free agency. They used those picks on two high school pitchers, Shane Watson and Mitch Gueller. Gueller is now out of the system after being released last year, but Watson is still with the team.
Watson started off the year in Double-A Reading’s rotation but didn’t do very well. In 10 starts, he had a 5.52 ERA, walking more batters than he struck out while posting a 1.89 WHIP. Opposing hitters were batting .312 against Watson in that span. It was safe to say Watson couldn’t cut it in the rotation.
In June, Watson was moved to the bullpen and has seen better results. He still isn’t striking out very many batters, but he cut his walk rate down to 5.9 percent and his WHIP to 1.34. Through 15 bullpen appearances, Watson has a 2.92 ERA, but his fielding-independent pitching of 4.78 is rather poor.
It seems like Watson is destined for a career in the bullpen, which isn’t what you hope for from a first-round pick. We have to hope he can improve his performance, because otherwise he may bottom out as well.
TAMPA, FL- MARCH 03: J.P. Crawford #77 of the Philadelphia Phillies in action during the game against the New York Yankees at Steinbrenner Field on March 3, 2016 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images) /
2013: J.P. Crawford
J.P. Crawford was the first pick of the Phillies after they started to rebuild and instantly became one of the team’s top prospects. Within a few years, he was the team’s prospect and expected to be the centerpiece of a future contending club. After the last season and a half, that expectation has been lowered.
Crawford has played the most games at any level of his minor-league career at Triple-A and he hasn’t exactly had the best results. In 186 Triple-A games Crawford has a .236/.336/.356 slash line. This year, that line is .228/.343/.390, which isn’t exactly what you want from your top prospect. Accordingly, Crawford has fallen out of the number one spot in almost every major ranking.
However, hope isn’t lost for the shortstop. Since returning from an injury June 20, Crawford has a .951 OPS with 10 home runs and 26 runs batted in. In 186 plate appearances, Crawford has walked 27 times and struck out 32 times. The last 43 games have been the best of Crawford’s at Triple-A by far.
Crawford’s recent numbers could be a hot streak or perhaps even him finally figuring out the Triple-A level. In fairness, he is 22 years old and 4.7 years younger than the average International League player. While it took longer than we would have liked, Crawford may finally be returning to top prospect form.
PHILADELPHIA, PA – JUNE 22: Starting pitcher Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a pitch in the third inning during a game against the St. Louis Cardinals at Citizens Bank Park on June 22, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Hunter Martin/Getty Images) /
2014: Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola was the first college player the Phillies drafted since 2007 and was regarded as a pitcher who could rise quickly through the system. That was the case as after just 30 minor-league games Nola made his major-league debut just a year after being drafted. Nola’s 2016 season put his future in question, but this year he is back on track.
As a whole this season, Nola has a 3.12 ERA, 25.4 percent strikeout rate, and 1.18 WHIP. His 3.6 bWAR is seventh-highest among NL pitchers and his 3.0 fWAR is 12th among all qualified pitchers. Nola has been among the league’s best pitchers this year.
Nola has easily been the team’s most successful first-round pick since Cole Hamels, with fans hoping Nola can be this generation’s version of Hamels – the homegrown pitcher who can center a World Series rotation.
2015: Cornelius Randolph
The Phillies went back to the high school ranks in the 2015 draft, taking shortstop Cornelius Randolph and immediately sliding him down the defensive spectrum to left field. They put a lot of pressure on his bat, and so far it has been a mixed bag of results for Randolph.
This year, Randolph’s average is at its lowest at just .254, but he has kept his on-base percentage at a respectable .345 thanks to an 11.5 percent walk rate. Where he has really shone is with his power, knocking 11 home runs with a .148 isolated slugging percentage. Through his first two years as a professional Randolph had just three home runs combined.
Randolph was projected to have decent power when he was drafted, and it’s good to see that power coming through in games. The biggest thing for Randolph to do now is find the balance between hitting for power and for average. Then he will really start to come into his own as a hitter.
2016: Mickey Moniak
The Phillies hit rock bottom in 2015, finishing 63-99 with the worst record in all of baseball. They “earned” the first pick in the 2016 draft, using it to select California high school outfielder Mickey Moniak.
While Moniak has all the tools to dream about, he hasn’t put the best results on the field this year. His slash line is a benign .256/.306/.364 while walking just 6.1 percent of the time and striking out nearly 21 percent of the time. Moniak has gone 9-for-15 in stolen base attempts, scored 51 runs, and driven in 39 runners.
Moniak was the first overall pick and has plenty of potential, but the on-field results have to match soon.
In fairness, he is just 19 years old playing in a league full of guys several years older than him, so expecting him to light the world on fire may be a little too much.
2017: Adam Haseley
The Phillies selected an outfielder for the third straight year when they took Adam Haseley from the University of Virginia this year. So far this season he’s been performing well
Haseley played three games in the Gulf Coast League and picked up seven hits. Then he was promoted to short-season Williamsport, where he has played 31 games. In that span, Haseley has hit for a .288/.370/.407 line, walking 13 times and striking out 24 times in 136 plate appearances. He has two home runs and eight doubles, driving in 15 runs. Haseley has gone 5-for-8 in stolen base attempts.
Haseley has performed about as well as fans could hope so far in his professional career. This year is a solid building block for Haseley as he starts to rise through the minor-league system.
