3 Phillies offseason additions we should already be concerned about
The Philadelphia Phillies had an eventful offseason following their World Series appearance. They had to be busy with Bryce Harper expected to miss a large chunk of the season, and Dave Dombrowski was just that. Some moves were good, some were less good.
The big move made was the Trea Turner signing. Turner hasn't quite hit for the power we expected, but he's hitting .338 and has been solid at the top of the order.
Turner has been good, but most of the offseason additions have not. Here are three the Phillies should be worried about.
1) The Phillies should be concerned with Craig Kimbrel
Craig Kimbrel signed a one-year deal worth $10 million to be a key piece in the Phillies bullpen. Kimbrel had an underwhelming year serving as the Dodgers' closer but was at one point one of the most dominant closers the game of baseball had ever seen. Kimbrel has an extensive track record of success so this felt like a fine signing for one year.
Unfortunately, Kimbrel has gotten off to an abysmal start. His first outing came in Texas and he allowed three runs while walking two and recording only one out. Kimbrel has walked a batter in five of his seven appearances and has walked six overall in just six innings of work.
Walks have always been a concern with Kimbrel. He walked 4.2/9 last season and has walked 3.7/9 in his career. Kimbrel has just always had the stuff to leave the walks on the bases, but at 34 years old, his stuff isn't what it used to be.
Kimbrel's fastball has seen a rapid decline in velocity. In 2021 it averaged 96.5 mph. Last season it was at 95.8. This season it's averaged 95 mph. A 1.5 mph decrease might not seem like a lot, but it is.
Kimbrel ranks in the eighth percentile in average exit velocity, the 10th percentile in hard-hit rate, and the first percentile in chase rate according to baseball savant. He's walking too many, getting hit hard when balls are put in play, and isn't getting the chases he once did.
I expect Kimbrel to be better than he has been, but he won't be the high-leverage guy Dave Dombrowski saw him be in Boston.
2) The Phillies should be concerned with Gregory Soto
The Phillies traded a good amount of their depth to Detroit to acquire Gregory Soto. That trade has hurt in more ways than one. The losses of players like Matt Vierling and Nick Maton have forced the Phillies into playing lesser players like Jake Cave and Kody Clemens. This has hurt the Phillies offense as they've had an underwhelming offense to begin the season.
More importantly, Soto has not looked good. The stuff is electric, but the two-time all-star has really struggled with his command.
In his eight appearances and 6.2 innings of work, Soto has walked six batters already. Command has always been an issue for this left-hander, but it was never quite this bad in Detroit. He walked 5.3 batters per nine as a Tiger, and has walked 8.1 batters per nine as a Phillie. These walks have been the main reason he's allowed six runs (four earned) in 6.2 innings of work.
More often than not, the walks will come back to hurt him pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark in a much tougher division. This isn't the AL Central anymore.
Jose Alvarado has been lights out which is important, but even he has his own trouble commanding pitches at times. The Phillies need Soto to be an important piece to their bullpen, and his struggles locating make him hard to trust.
The Phillies are 1-7 in games he's pitched in because he's been used mostly in lower-leverage spots. His last appearance came in the 13-0 loss in Cincinnati. I like Soto but it's hard to not be concerned with his start.
3. The Phillies should be concerned with Taijuan Walker
Taijuan Walker was signed to add more length to a very top-heavy rotation. Walker as a fourth starter makes a lot of sense, and I still like the move a decent amount for Philadelphia.
Walker's beginning to the 2023 season has been less than stellar, and with his last two second halves in mind, this should be cause for concern.
Walker put up all-star numbers in the first halves of the 2021 and 2022 seasons with the Mets before melting down in the second halves. The Phillies obviously need Walker to be a solid contributor for the entire season, but seeing him struggle in April doesn't give me much confidence that Walker will be the same pitcher he was in New York. In year one of a four-year deal, that's a bit concerning.
Walker made his Phillies debut at Yankee Stadium and allowed four runs on four hits in 4.2 innings of work. He walked three batters that night and threw 87 pitches.
His next start came at home against the Reds and Walker again couldn't even get through the fifth inning. In 4.2 innings of work he allowed two runs on three hits but walked five batters. He threw 105 pitches and couldn't even get through five.
His last start was better pitching in Cincinnati as he allowed one run in six innings and walking just two. Still, two starts of under five innings and 10 walks in 15 innings isn't great for a guy who's known to have solid command. Last season he walked just 2.6 batters per nine and never walked more than three in an outing.
Hopefully we see more of what Walker did his last time out in the future, but his slow start is concerning.