May has come and gone, and that means the official start of summer is right around the corner. The Philadelphia Phillies had some ground to makeup after a slow start, but sporting a National League-best 19-9 record in May has changed the narrative and now has them among the best teams in baseball for overall record and future playoff seeding.
The Phillies currently sit at 36-23 and, despite losing their last four games, they remain in great position in the NL (subscription required), per Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Their recent success gets them back into the conversation, but the opposition doesn't get any easier with the rest of the league still within arm's reach.
Phillies' hot May dramatically improved their playoff odds
The Phillies' starting pitching shined in May, leading the NL with 3.9 fWAR, even with a 3.94 ERA. The Phillies' offense also remains among the deepest in baseball. It was only a matter of time before it carried the team to a nine-game winning streak, during which they rode an .807 OPS, the fourth best in baseball.
Then there's the bullpen. A historically bad start for Phillies' relievers has since settled down. Although they haven't been lights out, they have played more towards their strengths as a staff, with a 4.31 ERA in May.
This recent recipe for success quickly vaulted the Phillies into a neck and neck race for the NL East. Let's take a look at how the division playoff odds are shaking out now, according to FanGraphs.
Team | Make Playoffs | Win Division | Win World Series |
|---|---|---|---|
Phillies | 88.0% | 45.7% | 8.6% |
Mets | 86.4% | 43.6% | 7.3% |
Braves | 51.1% | 10.5% | 5.2% |
Nationals | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Marlins | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The three-team race most fans expected for the division has dwindled to two, with the Atlanta Braves shockingly being unable to find any footing while hanging under the .500 mark. The Phillies now hold not only the highest odds to make the playoffs, but to win the division and win the World Series among all NL East teams. Four-straight losses could have buried this team earlier in the year, but not anymore.
The Phillies currently sit one game behind the New York Mets, who have kept a lead in the division for most of the early going. The Phillies did have as much as a three-game lead on May 24 after their nine-game winning streak, but relinquished it just one week later. That still didn't stop their playoff odds from jumping up 20.5 points and their division-winning odds also by 22.1 points since our last update at the end of April.
With the Phillies still having to fend off the rest of a loaded NL, let's see how the rest of the NL has shaken out in the last month of MLB action.
Team | Make Playoffs | Clinch Bye | Win World Series |
|---|---|---|---|
Dodgers | 98.0% | 75.8% | 19.9% |
Phillies | 88.0% | 35.3% | 8.6% |
Mets | 86.4% | 33.4% | 7.3% |
Cubs | 85.6% | 32.7% | 5.2% |
Braves | 51.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% |
The Los Angeles Dodgers haven't budged off the top spot and have only solidified their playoff odds even further. With how dominant the Phillies have been, they've eaten into some of the Dodgers' World Series equity, with a 5.2 point World Series-winning odds swing in their direction.
The Phillies can only handle the opponents they have in front of them and have done decent opposing other top NL contenders. They've taken a series against the Dodgers and Cubs already, winning two out of three, but were swept out by the Mets in three games and are currently tied with the Braves at three games a piece.
The Phillies were still heavily regarded as a top-NL contender in 2025 and the odds still have them in a favorable position. They've also had multiple hurdles to overcome, largely with the José Alvarado suspension. They still also have the management of closer Jordan Romano and some offensive campaigns that remain in purgatory. The Phillies have continued to chug along and remain in the win column, which fans hope continues through the month of June.