The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen was a complete mess over the first three and a half weeks of the season. Now, over the last two and half weeks, the relief corps looks more like what the front office likely envisioned when it assembled this year's group over the offseason.
Since April 21, the Phillies' bullpen has been one of the best in the majors. It has done this even with some of the expected studs not looking their sharpest, which bodes well for down the road.
So, is it safe to pull our finger away from the big red panic button Phillies fans were ready to smash midway through April?
Phillies' new arms contributed to bullpen's horrendous start
Up to April 20, the bullpen stumbled along to the second-worst ERA, posting a 5.81 mark, despite being asked to throw the second-fewest innings (69 2/3) in the league at that time. Phillies relievers blew six saves over that time, with their .282 batting average against ranking as the worst in baseball. Basically any stat you looked at, they ranked in the bottom-half to the bottom-third of MLB bullpens.
What made everything worse was that the early-season struggles — which feels a bit like an understatement — were led by the three new faces. Former two-time All-Star closer Jordan Romano, and his 15.26 ERA, was an unmitigated disaster. Veteran Joe Ross posted a 7.45 ERA. Carlos Hernández's 9.00 ERA was making the late-spring waiver claim look like a gigantic whiff. Even last season's pleasant surprise, José Ruiz, scuffled to a 6.14 ERA.
Not even a month into the season, things seemed so dire that eyes in Philadelphia were already turning to Triple-A Lehigh Valley for possible solutions.
It wasn't all bad, however. Matt Strahm, José Alvarado, Tanner Banks and Orion Kerkering held things together with a combined 2.84 ERA.
Bullpen's dramatic turnaround led by unusual suspects
It's been a much different story since April 21.
Ahead of play on April 8, the bullpen's 3.06 ERA and 1.14 WHIP rank seventh over the last 17 days. The advanced metrics and expected stats are all sparkling. Phillies relievers rank second in a handful of categories, including K-BB%, FIP, xFIP, SIERA and fWAR.
Here's how the recent run compares to the early-season stats:
Stat | Mar 27-Apr 20 (Rank) | Apr 21-May 7 (Rank) |
|---|---|---|
ERA | 5.81 (28th) | 3.06 (7th) |
WHIP | 1.55 (25th) | 1.14 (7th) |
BAA | .282 (30th) | .214 (6th) |
K-BB% | 12.4% (16th) | 19.9% (2nd) |
FIP | 4.51 (18th) | .269 (2nd) |
xFIP | 4.37 (22nd) | 3.19 (2nd) |
SIERA | 3.82 (17th) | 2.92 (2nd) |
fWAR | 0.4 (18th) | 1.0 (2nd) |
While those are impressive numbers, what's surprising is who is leading the charge. Since April 21, the top ERAs in the bullpen belong to Ross (0.00), Romano (1.93), Ruiz (2.25) and Banks (2.84).
You can now also add Taijuan Walker and his 0.00 ERA to that list after his dominant relief debut on Wednesday against the Tampa Bay Rays. The veteran threw three shutout innings, recording seven strikeouts and his first career save, per Corey Seidman of NBC Sports Philadelphia.
Rest of season outlook for bullpen looks promising despite hiccups from high-leverage arms
On the flip side, the arms projected to be among the top high-leverage options have also seen some struggles in the recent small sample size.
Strahm has a 6.23 ERA and hasn't looked nearly as sharp. Perhaps his shoulder issue during spring training has him out of sorts? Although that wouldn't really explain how he had a 1.74 ERA with 13 strikeouts to two walks in 10 1/3 innings through April 20.
Kerkering has a 6.00 ERA. The youngster has struggled with command this season — he has walked nine in 13 innings, with five free passes in six frames of work since April 21. There's even whispers that the Phillies somehow broke his sweeper.
Alvarado has a 4.26 ERA, thanks to his last outing, in which he surrendered four runs (three earned) against Arizona. Before that, the big lefty had been virtually untouchable, logging 22 strikeouts to two walks and allowing just three runs over his first 15 2/3 innings of the season.
They still have a ways to go to repair the early damage that sees the Phillies' bullpen ranked 24th in the league on the season with a 4.66 ERA. But the impressive stretch over the last two-plus weeks comes despite some hiccups from a few of the relievers that the Phillies should be able to count on the rest of the way. That bodes well for a relief corps that was making headlines in Philadelphia for all the wrong reasons early on.