The April chapter of the MLB season has come to a close, and that means the first month of the regular season has officially been accounted for. The Philadelphia Phillies, like many throughout the sport, had their fair share of both dysfunction and triumph through the first 30 games of the 2025 season.
The Phillies are looking to punch another postseason ticket at the end of this year, but first, the club that finished 95-67 and as the No. 2 seed last year has some early work to do to get themselves back into the conversation as one the top powerhouses in the National League.
Phillies' 2025 playoff odds see club lose ground after the first month
The Phillies' bullpen and offense that have headlined the early season have possibly found some rhythm as they head into the new month. Wednesday night was a step in the right direction of possibly a new norm for the Phillies, per MLB.com's Paul Casella.
The NL East has been a gauntlet so far and has the Phillies doing the hunting for a division lead. Let's take a look at how the division playoff odds are shaking out, according to FanGraphs.
Team | Make Playoffs | Win Division | Win World Series |
|---|---|---|---|
Mets | 85.8% | 50.9% | 9.2% |
Braves | 68.5% | 25.4% | 7.9% |
Phillies | 67.5% | 23.6% | 5.6% |
Nationals | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Marlins | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The expected three-team race has stayed true so far and, to Phillies fans' displeasure, the Phillies are the third-best team in the NL East by the playoff odds. The Phillies struggled mightily for a few weeks with bullpen implosions and an infuriating offense that looked unable to keep the team afloat, per MLB.com's Todd Zolecki.
That narrative seems to be changing now. They have rattled off four straight wins, with back-to-back series wins against the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals. They also currently hold second place, 3.5 games behind the New York Mets.
The Phillies are 17-13 and look to sweep out the Nationals on Thursday before a three-game weekend series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Even with the respectable record, the Phillies didn't do themselves any favors by getting swept by the Mets last week in Queens. The Phillies have time to make up for it, but as a result, did see a 4.9 point drop in their playoff odds from the beginning of the season when they sat at 72.4 percent to make the postseason.
The Braves have also turned things around, winning of nine of their last 12 games after starting the season 0-7. The Mets are the team to chase, as they hold the best record in baseball, tied with the Dodgers at 21-10. As for the rest of the National League, the idea that they're a juggernaut has held true.
Let's take a look at how the NL landscape has played out through April.
Team | Make Playoffs | Clinch Bye | Win World Series |
|---|---|---|---|
Dodgers | 98.3% | 81.6% | 22.0% |
Mets | 86.4% | 44.5% | 8.9% |
Braves | 69.0% | 20.7% | 7.9% |
Phillies | 67.7% | 19.0% | 5.5% |
Cubs | 66.9% | 14.9% | 3.4% |
The Phillies have their work cut out for them. The Mets are only just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the potential battle for playoff seeding. The Dodgers have reigned supreme since their World Series championship and have yet to waver as the favorite in the NL. That's also without including the San Diego Padres and Diamondbacks, who will be fighting for a playoff spot in 2025.
The Phillies' odds have remained consistent as far as securing a bye and winning the World Series, but that doesn't mean it'll be any easier this year. The Mets and Braves are opponents the Phillies can directly influence, but need better than their current 1-5 record against the division foes going forward.
The Phillies were able to forego the Wild Card round last year, which felt like a luxury at the time. But the time off only caused a dilemma for the team. The fight to get into the top two seeds will be much harder this year, but judging how 2022 and 2023 went as a Wild Card team, would it be the worst thing? Let's hope for an ever better month of May for the Phillies.