The final touches are being applied to Citizens Bank Park to get ready for another season of Philadelphia Phillies baseball. The smell of fresh-cut grass, fans packed into the ballpark and the excitement of baseball returning are the incredible side effects of Opening Day.
Thousands of eager Phillies fans will be looking forward to flooding the ballpark and showing their support for a club that took home the division crown in 2024. The Phillies' 95-win team of a year ago fell short after capturing a No. 2 seed and a first-round bye in the postseason. It wasn't the ending they were hoping for, but 2025 is another opportunity to fulfill that elusive dream.
Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski's goal of a World Series title remains the same, per Paul Hagen of NBC Sports Philadelphia. He has expressed confidence in this core, but the time for talk is over. With the NL East becoming its own juggernaut this offseason, let's take a look at the Phillies' final preseason playoff odds, according to FanGraphs.
Phillies' 2025 playoff odds have them trailing division rival ahead of Opening Day
The Phillies come into 2025 having their work cut out for them to separate themselves from the other contenders. All teams are at the starting gates, ready to get an early jump on the MLB season. With the season set to officially kick off Thursday, here's how FanGraphs' playoff odds stack up in the NL East ahead of Opening Day.
Team | Make Playoffs | Win Div. | Win WS |
|---|---|---|---|
Braves | 93.4% | 64.2% | 15.8% |
Phillies | 72.4% | 21.1% | 5.5% |
Mets | 62.4% | 14.6% | 4.1% |
Nationals | 2.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Marlins | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The Phillies won the division by six games last season, but the return of Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider will be a massive hurdle for the Phillies to run back their NL East crown. Their chance of capturing another division crown currently sits at 21.1 percent. The Mets handed outfielder Juan Soto a record contract this past winter, but also have a starting rotation that is ailing early on. However the division shakes out, many experts expect the top three teams to all make the postseason again in 2025.
After slugging it out within the division, the rest of the NL is no slouch either. The Phillies' biggest postseason threat could still be the Los Angeles Dodgers. Let's take a look at how the rest of the National League stacks up.
Team | Make Playoffs | Clinch Bye | Win WS |
|---|---|---|---|
Dodgers | 98.0% | 81.8% | 22.9% |
Braves | 93.4% | 58.2% | 15.8% |
Phillies | 72.4% | 18.1% | 5.5% |
Mets | 62.4% | 12.5% | 4.1% |
Diamondbacks | 60.4% | 8.0% | 3.6% |
Unsurprisingly, the Phillies, Braves and Mets all fit into the top five in the NL, while the Dodgers' continuous aspiration of building an Avengers team only further adds to their favoritism as repeat champions. The Diamondbacks are another team to watch out for in 2025. They missed the playoffs last October but still finished as the top-scoring offense in baseball. The addition of Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes makes a case for them to be another potential thorn in the Phillies' side.
The Phillies got to skip the Wild Card Series last season, but painfully fell flat on their face in the Division Series. The league has never been more loaded and with all the chips being down on the Phillies coming into the year, it's easy to forget they are one of the few favorites to still win it all. As long as they can play consistent enough baseball through the season and carry it into the playoffs, any team is beatable, even the mighty Dodgers.
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