Spring training for the Philadelphia Phillies has begun. The Phillies will officially turn the page to a new year following last season's disappointing playoff exit.
The Phillies would like to join the Philadelphia Eagles' recent festivities by having a championship parade this fall in South Philadelphia by winning the World Series, which would be their first since 2008. However, the roster needs to play well at the right time in the postseason. One reliever, in particular, cannot have a setback in 2025.
Matt Strahm did very well for Philadelphia during the 2024 regular season. He compiled a 1.87 ERA in a career-high 66 appearances. His ERA was his lowest since the 1.23 he finished with in 21 games during his rookie season as a member of the Kansas City Royals in 2016. The 79 strikeouts he totaled were the third-highest of his time in the majors.
The 33-year-old finished with a 33.3 percent strikeout rate last year, the second-highest of his career, just shy of the 34.1 percent in his first year in the majors. He made the first All-Star Game of his career last season due to his excellence in the first few months of the 2024 season.
That's All-Star Matt Strahm to you pic.twitter.com/nRQal2jAq9
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) July 11, 2024
After an uncharacteristic month of July in which he had a 6.00 ERA in 10 games, Strahm rebounded with a 0.84 ERA in 11 contests in August. The left-hander finished the regular season positively with an ERA of 0.82 in 11 games in September.
Strahm struggled in the NLDS versus the New York Mets. The Phillies bullpen underachieved collectively in the series against one of their division rivals. The veteran left-hander allowed two hits and two earned runners in only 1/3 of an inning in Game 1.
His struggles continued during Game 2 as Strahm allowed two earned runs and two hits, one of them a home run, in 2/3 of an inning. He rebounded in Game 4 by not surrendering a hit or an earned run. The left-hander is aiming not to let his bad play in two of the four contests carry over to 2025.
Can Strahm maintain his dominance in the Phillies bullpen through this season?
Steamer projects Matt Strahm will regress in 2025
Following a career year in 2024, Strahm is projected to have similar numbers to his only season with the Boston Red Sox in 2022 and from his 2023 season with the Phillies, according to FanGraphs' Steamer projections. The left-hander finished with a 3.83 ERA, averaged 10.48 K/9, and 3.43 BB/9 in 50 contests three years ago. He totaled a lower ERA of 3.29, averaged 11.09 K/9, and finished with 2.16 BB/9 in his first year with Philadelphia.
According to Steamer, Strahm will have a 3.29 ERA in a career-high 67 appearances. He will have a lower strikeout rate of 29.1 percent and finish with a 7.0 percent walk rate, higher than the 4.6 percent mark a season ago. Steamer predicts the left-hander will finish with a 0.9 fWAR, his lowest since the 0.3 fWAR he compiled in 2022 with the Red Sox.
Following the departure of free agent closer Carlos Estévez, manager Rob Thomson looks to be returning to the preference of using multiple relievers to close games. Jordan Romano, Orion Kerkering and Strahm are all candidates to be used for saves late in games, per MLB.com's Todd Zolecki. José Alvarado will likely be used in save situations as well.
Strahm projects to finish with a 10.66 K/9, lower than the 11.35 K/9 he totaled in 2024, and his BB/9 will rise from 1.58 to 2.54. He will finish with a 1.12 HR/9, more than the 0.57 HR/9 last season.
The 67 innings Strahm is predicted to pitch will be more than the 62 2/3 he had last year but less than the 87 2/3 innings he compiled in 2023. He will have a 22.2 K-BB% (strikeout-minus-walk rate), which would be his lowest since the 18.1 percent he posted three years ago.
Strahm needs to maintain his reputation as a dependable reliever Thomson can use late in games either in a setup role or in save situations, but he may not be as dominant as he was during the 2024 season. If he suffers a significant drop off in his performance this year, that will hinder Philadelphia's bullpen, which the club does not need in another World Series or bust season.