Whether being used for fantasy baseball projections or simply to further one's knowledge of analytics when following their favorite team, sites like FanGraphs offer valuable tools for baseball fans to learn more about the science behind baseball and dig deep into some numbers that can expand our understanding of the game. In particular, FanGraphs cobbles together projections from multiple sources, such as ZiPS, THE BAT, and perhaps most notably, Steamer, which MLB.com says "is widely regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry."
Glimpsing Steamer's projections for the 2025 Philadelphia Phillies, there are a few notable players who look to be trending up in general or rebounding from a sub-standard 2024, but there are also several who stand out as having a less optimistic outlook.
3 Phillies predicted to regress this season in Steamer's 2025 projections
We can all get wrapped up in raw numbers — home runs and RBI and strikeouts and the like. But so many factors go into determining how a player gets to those final numbers in a given season, which is what really makes these projection systems tick. With that, here are three Phillies that Steamer is not overly sold on for 2025.
Alec Bohm
Nobody on the Phillies has seen a more rapid fall from grace than Alec Bohm in less than a calendar year. Bohm, a worthy All-Star selection in 2024, was a legitimate National League MVP candidate as he sported a batting average over .300 into the second half of the season and jockeyed for the league lead in RBI.
But he cratered badly, and his abysmal 1-for-13 showing in the Phillies' short-lived playoff "run" soured the fanbase on him to the point that he was viewed as a prime trade candidate this offseason to obtain help elsewhere. And based on Steamer's 2025 outlook for Bohm, you'd tend to agree with that sentiment.
Will the @Phillies trade Alec Bohm this winter? @Ken_Rosenthal thinks it will happen... pic.twitter.com/8M8UX8GlIX
— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) December 17, 2024
Steamer pegs Bohm's ISO (extra bases per at bat) and strikeout rate as particular areas of regression, with his triple slash line (batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage) essentially stagnating. On the bottom line, it sees his RBI taking a big step back from 97 to 75, undercutting his real value to the club. Bohm was also a surprisingly plus defender last season, but Steamer's data suggests that he will slip back down to below average at the hot corner, further hindering his value. And subpar defense plus a lack of real run production from your third baseman is not a recipe for success.
Given all of this, you'd think that the Phillies would be more willing to part with Bohm this offseason if the right trade came along. They are being awfully dismissive of that so far, however. Steamer sees Bohm's 2024 as an aberration and believes that his WAR will drop from 3.5 to 2.6. If that happens, the Phillies will have been proven wrong in their decision to keep him.
Brandon Marsh
Marsh had various hot stretches in 2024, and when all was said and done he finished the campaign with a respectable .249/.328/.419 line to accompany a career-high 16 home runs and 60 RBI over 135 games. Steamer believes that the addition of Max Kepler in the outfield will tamp down Marsh's overall appearances and slightly suppress his raw numbers, and they also project many of his underlying numbers to regress just a tick almost across the board.
Based on Steamer projections, we should expect Marsh's walk rate to drop from 10.5 percent to 10.2 percent, his ISO to dip from .170 to .157, and a slip in BABIP (batting average on balls in play) from .348 to .339 as Marsh continues his downward slide in that metric. They do see him moderately cutting down his strikeout rate from 32.4 percent to 30.7 percent, but that's just about the only outlier.
Steamer also views Marsh as a net negative for the club if they elect to make him their primary center fielder this year over Johan Rojas, who is a superior defender at the position. You can't really blame Marsh for an organizational decision, but the fact of the matter is he will likely be average at best at the position this year if he shifts to center to make room for Kepler in left, which hurts his overall value. It makes you wonder if the Kepler signing really moves the needle at all, for that matter.
Add it all up, and Steamer sees Marsh's WAR taking a dive from last year's 3.1 mark all the way down to 1.8. Not exactly what you want to see from a 27-year-old theoretically in his prime and playing an important position for your club. Once again, maybe Marsh finds himself traded out of town and makes this all moot, but the Phillies certainly seem content with their outfield situation at the moment.
Matt Strahm
In fairness to Strahm, he would have a hard time topping what he did in 2024, when he earned a spot on the All-Star team as he finished with a dazzling 1.87 ERA for the year and struck out 79 batters in 62 2/3 innings. His efforts saw him compile a 2.5 fWAR, making him the Phillies' most valuable reliever and one of the most indispensable players on the team. And while Steamer once again sees him as the linchpin of the Phillies' bullpen in 2025, they have his WAR pegged at an even 1.0, with notable drops across the board.
The biggest culprit here is Strahm's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which was at 2.29 last year. Good pitchers will have lower numbers in that area of course, but Strahm's was the best on the club. Steamer sees his FIP shooting up to 3.41 in 2025, bringing his ERA up over 3.00 along with it. Still not terrible, but no longer in the "dominant" category where Strahm was last year.
Strahm bettered his career numbers in BB/9, K/9 and HR/9 last year, putting up 1.6, 11.3 and 0.6 in those categories after entering the season with career marks of 2.7, 9.9 and 1.2. Perhaps 2024 was Strahm finally "figuring things out," but Steamer is less bullish on the 33-year-old lefty and projects a BB/9 of 2.54, a K/9 of 10.66 and a HR/9 of 1.12, deviating much closer to the mean which he had established prior to 2024.
If this does indeed come to fruition, that Strahm sees this kind of drop-off yet still is the Phillies' "best" reliever, then the team's 2025 bullpen will be much less reliable than its 2024 version, and that's a big problem. Steamer is notably a bit down on Orion Kerkering as well, putting a dent in Phillies fans' expectations for their two most important returning relievers.
Time will tell just how close the various projection systems come to prognosticating the 2025 season for Bohm, Marsh, Strahm, and others. That's why they play the games, folks.