The Philadelphia Phillies wrapped up their three-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday with a 2-0 win. After taking two of three from the best team in baseball, fans will be wondering about the bigger picture. Where does this win leave the Phillies and their magic number in their quest to clinch the National League East?
After taking Game 1 by a 10-8 score in the instant classic on Labor Day, the Phillies dropped Wednesday's contest 6-3 after Aaron Nola's disastrous first inning. Thursday was a close affair but the Phillies came through with some late clutch hits and managed to cut down their magic number again.
Phillies drop NL East magic number to 17 after series win over Brewers
The Phillies' win on Thursday means that their magic number to win the NL East dropped by one to 17. With 22 games remaining, any combination of 17 Phillies wins and New York Mets losses results in a second straight division title for the good guys.
If you're wondering how MLB's magic numbers are determined, it's relatively simple, even if they are constantly changing. Baseball Reference has a handy Magic Number Calculator you can use, but here's the exact formula for the Phillies' NL East magic number:
Phillies games remaining +1 - (Mets losses - Phillies losses)
So, 22 + 1 - (65-59) = 23 - 6 = 17
The idle Mets haven't been able to make up much ground over the past week. After dropping three of four to the Miami Marlins, the Mets took two of three from the Detroit Tigers but still trail the Phillies by six games.
After getting a little closer to securing the division on Thursday, the Phillies are heavily favored to win the NL East, with their odds increasing again, slightly. According to FanGraphs' playoff odds, the Phillies now have a 92.5 percent chance of winning the division.
Here's how the division looks after the Phillies' 81st win of the season:
Team | GB | NL East magic number | Playoffs magic number |
|---|---|---|---|
Phillies | -- | 17 | 13 |
Mets | 6.0 | 29 | 19 |
Marlins | 16.0 | 39 | 33 |
Braves | 18.0 | 41 | 35 |
Nationals | 24.5 | -- | 42 |
The even better news is that the Phillies can make a real dent in their magic number over the next week of the schedule. They are heading to Miami for three winnable games against the Marlins this weekend.
Then, the Mets will be visiting Citizens Bank Park for the final series between the two rivals. That four-game series could have a huge impact on the division standings, for better or for worse. But every Phillies win during that series cuts their magic number to clinch the NL East by two.