Heading into the 2025 MLB season, the Philadelphia Phillies were banking on left-handed reliever Matt Strahm to continue his success after an All-Star season in 2024. However, this year has been a little different, as he tries to bounce back from a slow start, even though he has thrown the ball well overall.
Unfortunately for the Phillies and Strahm, he has not been off to the start both were hoping for. He has posted a 3.24 ERA through 19 games and 16 2/3 innings of work. The most concerning part for Strahm at this point in the season is that his velocity has taken a hit compared to a season ago. His four-seam fastball averaged 93.4 mph in 2024, compared to 91.7 mph this season.
His most recent appearance didn't end well when he made a mistake with a 91 mph fastball against St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Masyn Winn in Monday's 3-2 loss.
Matt Strahm's underlying stats show that he deserves better than his early results
On the other hand, Strahm has some of his best numbers in advanced statistics. His xERA sits at 2.16, the lowest of his career, and he currently ranks in the top four percent of baseball in that predictive stat. His FIP is also the lowest of his career, at 2.27.
Other numbers that back up Strahm's slow start being a little on the unlucky side are his .275 xSLG and .242 xwOBA, both in the top four percent of the league. The quality of contact he's allowing is also in his favor, per Baseball Savant. His 11.1 percent weak contact rate is the highest of his career, and his solid contact rate of 8.9 percent is only slightly higher than compared to a season ago at 8.5 percent. He has not allowed a barrelled ball to this point of the season, either.
Strahm's start to the season can be compared to a teammate with similar advanced numbers being in his favor while struggling. That was third baseman Alec Bohm, who got off to a slow start despite some substantial offensive numbers that were not translating to hits. Since then, Bohm has turned his season around, starting to hit better for the Phillies offense.
The Phillies need Strahm to be on a similar trajectory as Bohm has seen, and need the left-hander to step up in high-leverage situations. The team saw him earn his second save of the year on May 8 in extra innings against the Tampa Bay Rays.
“I don’t even know where the pitch ended to be honest,” Strahm said after the game, per MLB.com's Todd Zolecki. “I saw him swing. I didn’t hear a bat and I knew the game was over. I don’t know. I blacked out.”
If Strahm can continue that game's success, that is the pitcher the Phillies will need him to turn into as the season progresses and games become even more meaningful games the rest of the season.