The Philadelphia Phillies finally made a move to upgrade their outfield for the 2025 season. The Phillies signed former Minnesota Twins outfielder Max Kepler to a one-year, $10 million deal. In doing so, what are the Phillies getting in Kepler and is this a great move being made by Philadelphia?
Grading the Phillies’ Max Kepler signing that fills an everyday roster spot affordably
Despite not having any accolades or awards on his professional baseball resume, Kepler has always been a reliable, run-producing machine throughout his 10-year MLB career. For the past decade, he has averaged 84 runs scored, 31 doubles, 24 home runs and 77 RBI over a 162-game schedule pace each season for the Twins while batting in various spots in the lineup, with the cleanup spot being the most common position.
For those who are worried about his overall performance from 2024 in which he put up just eight home runs and 42 RBI in 105 games played, a lot of it likely had to do with the rash of injuries that he dealt with throughout the season. On top of that, Kepler is just one year removed from his solid 2023 campaign, in which he hit .260 with an .816 OPS, 72 runs scored, 24 home runs and 66 RBI in 130 games. Taking a look at his Statcast advanced metrics that season, one would see a sea of red, with the bulk of the categories ranked above the 75th percentile in the league.
In addition, despite not having won any Gold Gloves in the past, Kepler can hold his own in the field with 50 DRS and 46 outfield assists with a stellar .993 fielding percentage over his 10 seasons in the majors. Even last season, when his injuries were likely affecting his effectiveness at the plate, he remained strong in the field with four outs above average to rank in the 85th percentile in the entire league. It appears as though Kepler has the potential to provide great value both at the plate and in the field.
Kepler's health will be the main concern
So the main caveat now will be how well Kepler can keep himself healthy, as he hasn’t reached more than 134 games played in a season since 2018 when he managed to get into 156 matches. Having averaged less than 120 games in each of the past four years, it would be hard for any team to lose one of their everyday starters for more than a quarter of the season. As a result, Kepler’s overall value will largely depend on that one main variable, especially as they intend him to be their everyday left fielder.
At just a value one-year contract, it's not a costly gamble and could potentially be a low-risk, high-reward signing for the Phillies. However, given that Kepler profiles similar to their past trade deadline acquisition in Austin Hays, one should temper the expectations just a bit until Kepler proves otherwise. As a result, the free agent signing grades out as a B+.
Max Kepler signing grade: B+