The Phillies are playing their best baseball of the season. They’ve won four straight series, have beaten the Mets in four of six games since June 18, and have scored more than 10 runs in three of their last 10 games. And perhaps the best part of it all: Their rampant run has come against divisional opponents.
To add a cherry on top of the whipped cream in the sundae, the Braves -- ahead of Philly by just three games -- have been losing. After sweeping the Pirates from June 5-7, the Braves have dropped a whopping four of their last five series. Their plummet has included a two-game sweep by the White Sox, dropping both legs of a doubleheader to the Giants, and a three-game sweep at the hands of the Padres.
Ring. The. Bell. This means that by the time the All-Star break rolls around, the Phils can usurp the Braves for sole control of the NL East. With 13 games to go before the break, here’s what that path looks like.
The Philies have to go at least 9-4 to pass the Braves for 1st place in the NL East for All-Star
Like the Phillies, the Braves have a 13-game stretch before they take off for the Midsummer Classic. They’ll take on the Cardinals, Mets, Pirates and Cardinals again before hanging their cleats up for the week.
The home-and-away Cardinals series should both be competitive, with St. Louis trotting out a lineup headlined by All-Star hopeful Jordan Walker. Their rotation has seen an inverted performance, with Kyle Leahy and Andre Pallante doing the brunt of the damage to opposing lineups, while star lefty Matthew Liberatore has struggled.
So, let’s say the Braves take four of seven games from the bullish Cards, and repeat history against a Mets squad that won two of three against them in mid-June, scoring seven and eight runs (respectively) in their two wins. That would put their record at 5-5, and 6-7 if they can take one of three against the young and hungry Pirates. They’ll likely be blessed with a brush of luck in getting to avoid Paul Skenes in that series.
But for a team that began the month of June 5-1, and is now 9-13 as it comes to a close, a 6-7 record to close the first half is not far-fetched.
The Phillies won’t be afforded that same opportunity to miss out on a date with Skenes as they prep for a four-game series with the Bucs. But they’ll be deploying a man with just one loss this season to match wits with him in Zack Wheeler. And the Bucs are slated to deal with Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sánchez to open the series.
If they can take three of four against the Pirates, they can afford to drop two of three against a scrappy Reds club. That would put them at 4-3 with the more difficult half of their four series out of the way, and the Royals and Tigers left to handle. They’re projected to take on Tarik Skubal in one of the latter two games against Detroit, but shouldn’t have their hands full with a squad that’s gone 35-49 this season.
As for Kansas City, if the Phils don’t get complacent and start daydreaming about sunny seashores, the Royals are ripe for the picking, and should be handled with ease. So, the high-level outlook for Philly is: Win three of four against Pittsburgh, sweep the Royals, win a game in Cincinnati, and win two games in Detroit.
That will give the Phillies 9-4 record over their last 13. And if the Braves hold up their end of the bargain, that stretch will have them sittin’ pretty atop the NL East when it's time to pause competitive ball for All-Star week.
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