As far as front-of-the-rotation starters go, the Philadelphia Phillies may have the best collection of talent in baseball. Behind Christopher Sánchez's front-running campaign for the Cy Young Award, the team can roll out a 1-2-3 punch of their ace lefty, Zack Wheeler, and Jesús Luzardo.
That group should be good enough to win most against most teams, though you need four starters at a minimum to survive in the postseason. Aaron Nola is the default No. 4, though he's struggled so much that it'd be hard to trust him in do-or-die situations.
Even if Nola turns it around, the Phillies are perilously thin on pitching depth. Andrew Painter and Alan Rangel are the only other healthy starters on the 40-man roster at this point, which is a terrifying proposition given the injury history of some of the aforementioned names.
That reality makes Painter's development all the more important; if he steadies the ship and proves capable of pitching like a mid-rotation starter, the front office may feel confident enough to ride with the status quo. If he continues to falter, however, Dave Dombrowski and company may need to use some of their precious prospect depth to bring in another arm.
Andrew Painter is running out of time to secure his Phillies' rotation spot
Given the size of his contract and longstanding track record of success, more of this burden falls on Nola's shoulders than anyone else's. He's certainly not the three-time top-10 Cy Young finisher he once was, but asking him to be a serviceable No. 4 starter shouldn't be asking for too much.
That being said, Nola's best days are indeed behind him. He's 33, dealt with a significant ankle injury last year, and has nearly 1,800 innings of mileage on his arm. Whatever improvements he makes from here will more than likely be marginal.
Painter, on the other hand, is a rookie with a lively arm and tons of untapped potential. Inconsistency has plagued his every move during this debut campaign, hence the 6.21 ERA and 5.08 FIP on his ledger. However, he's also displayed moments of brilliance, like his three-start stretch in mid-May when he allowed just five runs over 17.1 innings.
His most recent efforts against the White Sox and Dodgers have been far less glamorous, but the proof of concept is there. If he can just string together quality starts and eliminate the blow-up outings, the Phillies should feel confident enough in their rotation to focus most of their attention on hitters in the lead up to August.
Considering that Adolis Garcia's recent placement on the 60-day injured list will only heighten the team's already-glaring need for a right-handed hitting outfielder at the trade deadline, it's not outrageous to claim that Painter is the Phillies' most important player to watch over the next month.
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