Phillies: Five starting pitchers to add at the trade deadline
The Phillies have more opportunities to improve in a win-now season
Despite being only 24 games into their season the Phillies have to look for creative ways to improve at the MLB trade deadline.
Already general manager Matt Klentak has shown that this is a win-now season, in large part because his job is on the line. The man tasked with leading the Phillies rebuild after the 2015 season hasn’t had a season better than .500 under his watch despite acquiring Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson, Jean Segura, Zack Wheeler, and Jake Arrieta.
The Phillies need to find every possible way to get better, and they’ve already started by acquiring three relievers to improve what is statistically one of the worst bullpens in baseball history.
Next, the team should, at the very least, look at improving the starting rotation. Their 4.26 ERA is the 11th best in baseball and their 2.30 ERA is the seventh-best, but there is room for improvement with questions still lingering.
With the current set-up, it appears that top pitching prospect Spencer Howard has officially taken the starting job away from Vince Velasquez. With Howard going with Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, the Phillies have a fairly competent top of the rotation.
Behind them are Zach Eflin and Jake Arrieta, who have had mixed results early in 2020. Both of their ERAs are around five through four starts each and are averaging about one or more home runs per nine innings.
The biggest concern might be the 34-year-old Arrieta, who is in the final guaranteed year of his contract. He was impressive in his first two games, but lately he hasn’t gotten out of the fifth inning and has allowed four runs in both games.
If the Phillies could swap Arrieta for another arm or potentially move him to the bullpen, there is room to add another starting pitcher.
Even behind Arrieta and Eflin, the Phillies don’t have much when it comes to starting pitcher depth. They just traded Nick Pivetta in the Brandon Workman/Heath Hembree deal, and we’ve seen what kind of Velasquez can do.
Prospect JoJo Romero is currently in the bullpen with only one major league inning under his belt, and Ranger Suarez is still working his way back from COVID-19. The only other potential starter would be 25-year-old Damon Jones, a prospect in the alternate team camp who has never played in the big leagues.
The Phillies need depth, and now’s the time to get it.
Here are five potential trade targets for the Phillies to consider
The Phillies would be hoping for a rebound from Mike Minor
The Phillies have long been connected to Mike Minor with trade interest dating back to last year when they scouted the Texas Rangers lefty.
The 32-year-old revitalized his career as a Royal after missing two seasons with arm injuries. His last two years with the Rangers pushed him into the conversation as one of baseball’s best-kept secrets. Fourteen wins, a 3.59 ERA, and 200 strikeouts last year earned him an All-Star nod and an eighth-place finish for the Cy Young.
So far the 2020 season hasn’t been especially kind to Minor, who has been given a loss in all six of his starts with a 6.75 ERA and seven home runs allowed. He has had two or three solid outings, but in three games the Rangers didn’t give him more than two runs of support and haven’t scored more than four runs in any game he’s started this year.
Texas is nine games back in the American League West at 10-17 on Monday afternoon, and even with the expanded playoffs it would take a lot for them to pass the Astros and A’s in the division. I would expect them to be a seller, making Minor a potential trade target for any team looking for a cheap option for the rotation or even the bullpen if warranted.
Philadelphia also doesn’t have a lefty in their rotation, so adding Minor would certainly give them a different look there. With his struggles, it wouldn’t cost them a lot compared to last year when he was an All-Star.
Minor is also in the last year of his contract, so financially the Phillies would be fine long-term.
The Phillies probably can’t afford to trade for Johnny Cueto
Who would have thought we’d still be talking about Johnny Cueto in 2020? After three top-six Cy Young finishes Cueto fell off due to injuries, making only 13 starts in his last two seasons.
Now back and healthy for Gabe Kapler’s San Francisco Giants, Cueto has rebounded to start the 2020 season.
Through a league-high six starts (showing off his health early on) Cueto has won two games with a modest 4.35 ERA. He’s struck out 27 batters and walked only 12 in 31 innings, showing he can still be effective at 34-years-old
It’s very possible that the Giants move Cueto this year given where the organization stands in their rebuild, but it would be tough for the Phillies to be able to acquire him.
In 2016 Cueto signed a six year deal worth $130 million with San Francisco, much of which he hasn’t lived up to because of the injuries. In this shortened season he’s making $7.77 million and he has another guaranteed year left worth $21 million.
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Cueto also has a club option worth $22 million in 2022 that can be bought out for $5 million, which is likely given where his career currently stands.
There are a couple of reasons why that contract isn’t appealing for the Phillies.
First, in a season where teams aren’t making much money, it’s hard to see teams taking on approximately $30 million for an aging pitcher with a history of injuries like Cueto, regardless of how he’s bounced back.
Second, the Phillies are already up against the luxury tax, barely staying under with their recent trades to upgrade the bullpen. General manager Matt Klentak has called the $208 luxury tax a guide and not a hard barrier. They’re believed to be right up against the cap, so if they want a high-priced guy like Cueto they’ll have to either go over the tax or give up a better prospect for San Francisco to pay more of the contract.
I don’t see this one happening, but if the Phillies can move a big contract in the deal it might work out.
If the Angels sell, the Phillies could go after Dylan Bundy
Dylan Bundy is having a big bounceback season with the Los Angeles Angels, and that could pay off at the trade deadline if you’re the Angels.
In his first four seasons with the Orioles, Bundy was a number four starter with a 4.69 ERA in 125 games. The fourth overall pick in 2011, there were a lot of high expectations for Bundy, but he never found himself to be an ace in Baltimore like they expected.
The Orioles traded Bundy to Los Angeles for four minor leaguers (Kyle Bradish, Kyle Brnovich, Isaac Mattson, and Zach Peek) and the Angels gladly accepted the rehab project.
Through five starts with Los Angeles, Bundy is 3-2 with a 2.58 ERA and a nine-inning complete game. He’s got two 10 strikeout games this year and has 44 strikeouts already with only seven walks, an impressive start to the shortened season.
Los Angeles will be the type of team looking to sell this season, already 10 games under .500 and as many games behind the Oakland Athletics for first place in the American League West. They’ll take anything they can get at this point to help rebuild a team around Mike Trout.
A big plus for any team trading for Bundy is that he’s making only $1.8 million this year and he has another year of arbitration left. This won’t be the kind of deal where you only get a starter for five games and hopefully a couple of playoff starts. Whoever gets him will (hopefully) get a full 2021 season as well.
Alex Cobb might be one of the more realistic trade options for the Phillies
A couple of years ago the Phillies were connected to free agent starter Alex Cobb, and that interest could peak again with him as a trade candidate.
Cobb established himself early on as a potential top of the line starter in Tampa Bay, winning 32 games with a 3.19 in his first three full big league seasons. Tommy John surgery, unfortunately, took his 2015 season and most of 2016, costing him valuable time and money.
Once he was healthy in 2017, Cobb put up impressive numbers once again with the Rays and set himself up for a big pay day. The Orioles gave him a four-year $57 million deal, but it largely hasn’t paid off.
Cobb had a 4.90 ERA and took 15 losses for a bad Orioles team in 2018, then injuries cost him most of the 2019 season.
Now healthy in 2020, Cobb has rebounded and put up strong numbers through six starts with a 3.73 ERA. His numbers aren’t at the top of any stat trackers, but he’s shown to be a reliable number three or four starter this year.
Cobb has a $15 million salary for the 2021 season, so that might hold up the Phillies from a financial standpoint. They still have to sign J.T. Realmuto and establish their shortstop position with Didi Gregorius on a one-year deal. Cobb would save them from dipping into the 2021 free agent pool, something they’ll have to evaluate as well at the trade deadline, it could cost them when it comes to keeping their own guys.
Can the Phillies net the biggest fish on the trade market at the deadline?
Perhaps the best arm potentially available is Cincinnati Reds starter Trevor Bauer, who is putting together a Cy Young caliber season after being traded from Cleveland last year.
In four starts Bauer is 3-0 with a 0.68 ERA, fueled by two complete game shutouts, something few imagined given where baseball, especially pitchers, stood coming out of the summer camp restart.
Bauer currently ranks in the top-10 among all starters this year in both WAR and wins with 41 strikeouts to go with it. At 29-years-old, he’s certainly one of the best pitchers in baseball.
The big question is whether the Reds will trade Bauer after getting only 14 starts out of him since acquiring him last year. They gave up some big prospects in the three-team deal with San Diego and Cleveland, so the asking price won’t be cheap.
Cincinnati is also still in the playoff hunt despite being four games under .500 and 5.5 games out of first place. They went all out last offseason getting Mike Moustakas and Nicholas Castellanos in free agency, so giving up on the 2020 season after 30 games isn’t ideal from a front office standpoint.
Philadelphia Phillies
But in the big picture, Bauer is in the final year of his contract and has publically stated that he wants to go year-to-year with his deals to earn as much money as possible. He’s also a very outspoken person, which may or may not mesh well in Philadelphia.
Players like Jonathan Papelbon were fine in the city when the team was doing well, but when things went wrong it usually meant the end of their time here.
If the Phillies really want to go all in on the 2020 season and acquire Bauer, they might have to give up a top prospect. Given the financial flexibility and success both Alec Bohm and Spencer Howard provide, it’s hard to see the Phillies giving either of them up.
Likely wanting to keep Mick Abel, their first round pick from 2020, their only other top 100 prospect s 2019 first round pick Bryson Stott, who barely cracked the list as the 95th best prospect. The Phillies will need a long-term shortstop soon, and Stott is their best chance at that. Do they trade a former first round pick for only a couple of starts out of Bauer, who they’d have to re-sign while also attempting to keep Realmuto?
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These are the questions Klentak and the rest of the Phillies front office will have to consider as they fight to keep their jobs beyond 2020.