Phillies: What the first month has taught us about the 2019 club
Through the first 28 games, the Phillies sit at 16-12 atop the NL East. As we shift gears to the second month of the season, we look at the good and bad that sticks out so far, and how they relate to the team’s success or failure.
A single word to describe the first month of the Phillies season: unanticipated. Whether the topic is pitching or hitting, individual play or as a whole, the results so far have been unanticipated.
Fielding hasn’t differed all that much from what I expected, so I will not get into that. Pitching was such a strong aspect of last year behind Aaron Nola‘s Cy Young-like year, and now the Phillies are relying heavily on the grizzled 10-year veteran Jake Arrieta and masterful starts from Vince Velasquez and Zach Eflin.
Also, a lot of pop was to be expected from this team, but one of the guys supplying the most production is Maikel Franco, who is having a breakout season. Yet, the increase in team output has been followed by an increase in missed opportunities. Strikeouts have been a major thorn in the side of the offense, and have stunted their growth towards becoming a powerhouse.
I mentioned after the Atlanta series that dominating the NL East has been a precursor to success in recent history. The Phillies are 13-8 against NL East opponents, having taken three of the four-game series at home against the Marlins. As they prepare to embark into the meat of the season, I took a look at the two facets of their game that have been affected the most: pitching and hitting.
Pitching – Backend Success in Rotation
Most would probably have said before the season that the biggest question marks for the pitching staff would be the rotation behind Aaron Nola, and the back-end of the bullpen. A month’s worth of games into the season, Nola has had troubling outings, while Jake Arrieta is having a revitalizing season, and Vince Velasquez is off to the best start of his career.
I touched on what I believe is going wrong with Nola, so I won’t dive into that again. It is worth noting that Nola looked very good in his last start against Miami.
Over his last three starts before Saturday’s debacle, Arrieta had pitched 21 innings and faced 82 batters, only surrendering seven runs (six earned) and 18 hits, with 18 strikeouts and only four walks. Five of his six starts have been quality starts (at least six innings, giving up three or less earned runs), and he has been the workhorse this rotation needs, with the bullpen getting a large amount of work early this season. I may not agree with his approaches in talking with the media, but there’s no denying he has been the best pitcher on the staff this year, leading the team with a 1.3 WAR.
Everyone in the baseball world anticipated that Nick Pivetta was poised to have a breakout year, and that Vince Velasquez would be fighting for his life to stay in the rotation. Now, one month in, Velasquez leads the rotation in ERA and BAA, while Pivetta tries to find himself down in the minors.
Velasquez has only given up five earned runs in his four starts, with four runs coming from home runs. He has been dominating with his fastball and by keeping hitters off by mixing well between 2/4-seam fastballs and sliders.
Velasquez currently ranks 12th in WAR, tied with Zach Eflin and Pittsburgh’s Joe Musgrove (1.2).
Outside of his first start against Miami, and the Mets game against Zack Wheeler were nothing went right, Eflin has been everything that Phillies’ fans hope Pivetta would be. Eflin has stranding more than 80% of runners he allows, and has the lowest walks per nine innings of the rotation (1.29). In fact, Eflin has the third lowest BB/9 in the entire league among qualified starters, behind a former-Cy young winner (Max Scherzer) and a World Series MVP (Madison Bumgarner).
Not to mention Eflin pitched the first Phillies complete game since September 2017. However, his major problem is home runs, similar to Nola’s. The Phillies and the Cardinals are the only teams to have two pitchers in the bottom 20 in home runs per nine innings (Eflin – 1.54, Nola – 1.99). If Eflin can minimize the number of home runs, his numbers will look even better, which will lead to wins.
That is, if the offense capitalizes on their opportunities.
Batting – Production Increase, Yet Opportunities Missed
Since before the opening pitch, I believed that this team was going to crush home runs at a historic pace, eventually breaking the Citizens Bank record of 116. Currently, the Phillies are on pace to hit 142 home runs at home, having already hit 28 through 16 games.
An unsurprising fixture in this production has been Rhys Hoskins and Bryce Harper, who have combined for 14 home runs and 43 RBIs on the season, while also ranking in the top 30 for on-base percentage. They are two of three Phillies players who have less than 20 at-bats between home runs, which leads me to my surprising fixture to the Phillies production: Maikel Franco.
Not only did moving Franco down to the eighth spot in the lineup increase his on-base percentage (eight intentional walks) but he has also increased his patience, seeing the most pitches per at bat in his career.
Franco currently is second on the team in home runs and RBI, earning him the title “best eight-hole hitter in baseball” on the Phillies broadcast.
The increase in production throughout the lineup has led to an increase of a run per game from last year, but another problem has arisen: stranding runners. The Phillies have left 215 runners on base so far this season, which is second-worst in the league.
Buried in that, the Phillies have also stuck out 63 times with runners in scoring position, and 108 times with men on. Granted, I understand that the Phillies have a top 10 batting average in both of those categories, but 215 runners left on base is a brutal number.
Harper, Hoskins and Andrew McCutchen are all striking out more than 25% of their plate appearances, above the league average of 23.8%. The Phillies’ biggest problem is that they are swinging and missing 11.4% of the time, 12th most in the league. Harper, in particular, has a swinging strike rate of 16.4 percent, 10th worst among qualified hitters. Yet, one encouraging aspect of the Phillies game is their ability to get on base via the walk.
The Phillies currently sit ninth in on-base percentage, with both Harper and Hoskins having an OBP of .400+. The Phillies also have three of the top eight leaders in walks with Harper, Hoskins, and McCutchen. Imagine that with 215 runners left on base, and the Phillies already scoring 5.18 runs per game, how much more damage they could do if they count down their strikeout percentage.
If Harper and Hoskins can get their K% down below 25 percent, especially since 51 percent of their at-bats (103/201) have come with men on, there would be an increase in production.
dark. Next. No place like home for the Phillies
With the lineup getting back to full strength, after a brutal string of injuries, will we see an increase in production? They need to cut down on the strikeouts and stop stranding runners, to lighten the load of the pitching staff that has given up 4.68 runs per game. Getting Jean Segura back is a huge boost, and it allows everyone to settle back into their familiar lineup roles.