Phillies: Three bold predictions for an exciting 2019

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PHILADELPHIA, PA – APRIL 21: Rhys Hoskins #17 of the Philadelphia Phillies hits a three-run home run against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the sixth inning at Citizens Bank Park on April 21, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Miles Kennedy/Philadelphia Phillies/Getty Images) /

The Phillies will break the home run record at Citizens Bank Park.

The Phillies offense has been horrible since the Golden Years of five straight playoff appearances (’07-’11). Hard to believe we’re already 10 years removed from back-to-back World Series appearances.

Yet, the acquisitions of Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, J.T. Realmuto, and Bryce Harper will provide a boost that Philly has been craving since the days of Ryan Howard launching balls over the bell. Realistically though, what can we expect from them? My prediction: Citizens Bank Park history.

Citizens Bank Park has a reputation for being a hitter friendly park, which is not 100% true. They’re a moderately average park in terms of hits, ranking in the bottom half of Park Factor each of the last four years.

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However, Citizens Bank Park is incredibly susceptible to the home run. When looking at Park Factors across the league since 2014, Left Field (1.25, 2nd) and Right Field (1.24, 3rd) had the two-highest ratings of any part of any park, outside of Yankee Stadium’s Right Field porch (1.33). These numbers make it even more vexing that the Phillies hadn’t had a guy hit 30+ home runs since 2011 until Rhys Hoskins last year. That period of hardship is over.

The Phillies now have five players who have less than 30 plate appearances between home runs at Citizens Bank Park in their careers: Harper – 14.9, Hoskins – 15.2, McCutchen – 16.1, Maikel Franco – 24.9, Realmuto – 27.3. If these numbers are any indication, the five of them will hit a combined 90 home runs at home.

That’s only five of potentially 12 hitters, and the record for home runs at Citizens Bank is 116 (2007). That means seven players have to hit 26 home runs, with the big bats of Nick Williams (15 career home runs at home), Aaron Altherr (24 home runs), Scott Kingery (six home runs), and Dylan Cozens (four home runs this spring) coming off the bench.

Let’s not forget Jean Segura, who has at least 10 home runs each of the last three years, nor Odubel Herrera, who hit 13 home runs at home in 2018. Even Cesar Hernandez put a charge into seven home runs at home last season from the leadoff spot.

Fans in the outfield seats better take some fly ball practice before going to Citizens Bank Park this year.