Phillies MLB Opening Day 2019: Evaluating likely lineup
By John Town
Manager Gabe Kapler announced the tentative 2019 Phillies Opening Day lineup. Is it the one that he should be employing consistently this season?
Lineup tinkering was a staple of Phillies manager Gabe Kapler’s rookie season. He deployed 138 different batting orders and 95 different defensive lineups as he tried to play every possible matchup he could.
This year, that tinkering should go out the window after the numerous, well-documented additions made to the roster during the offseason. Every position was pretty much set coming into spring training, and no injuries have forced any changes (knock on wood).
Kapler said that Thursday’s Opening Day lineup could still change, but as of now it looks like this according to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com:
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- LF Andrew McCutchen (R)
- SS Jean Segura (R)
- RF Bryce Harper (L)
- 1B Rhys Hoskins (R)
- C J.T. Realmuto (R)
- CF Odubel Herrera (L)
- 2B Cesar Hernandez (S)
- 3B Maikel Franco (R)
- P Aaron Nola (R)
This lineup is (unsurprisingly) miles ahead of last year’s Opening Day lineup. But is it the best way to deploy these eight position players?
As a whole, there is little, if anything I would change about the top of the order. The 32-year-old McCutchen is definitely not the stereotypical leadoff hitter, but Kapler doesn’t care about that. On-base ability is the key thing Kapler (rightfully) cares about in a leadoff hitter, and McCutchen has that in spades. McCutchen has a career .378 on-base percentage and had a .368 OBP last season. Coupled with his decent power, McCutchen should fit in this role.
Segura would be my next choice for the leadoff hitter, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he spends some time there this season. However, he is better suited for the No. 2 spot as he doesn’t reach base as often but generates more hits that can send baserunners from first to third. Segura has a .308 batting average over the last three seasons, which would’ve blown away anyone else on the team last year.
The heart of this order is downright petrifying. Harper-Hoskins-Realmuto should never be split up this season; full stop. Maybe you hit them 2-3-4, but they should not be split up. This is the best 3-4-5 this team has had since the days of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Pat Burrell, and maybe even better.
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Herrera works for me as the sixth hitter since his left-handed bat breaks up the righty-heavy top of the order. The last three spots of this lineup are the part I have some objections with.
Hernandez hitting seventh just seems like a waste of his own on-base ability. Franco certainly got better last year hitting .270, but he’s still not reliable enough to get Hernandez or Herrera home consistently.
Personally, I think Kapler should drop Hernandez all the way to the ninth spot, sliding up Franco and the pitcher. That way Hernandez doesn’t get stranded by the pitcher and has McCutchen and Segura behind him to drive him home.
Based on Hernandez’s .366 OBP in the last three years, we should expect him to reach base once every three plate appearances; it only makes sense to give him the best chances of scoring runs.
Besides that, the only potential flaw is the number of righties hitting at the top of the order. When the team faces pitchers like Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Noah Syndergaard, it may behoove Kapler to sub in Nick Williams for McCutchen to give the team favorable platoon splits.
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Overall, this lineup has the potential to be one of the best in the league, a marked change from a year ago. When comparing this Opening Day lineup to ones from years past, it’s very easy to get excited about this season.