Phillies 2019 season preview: Starting pitcher Nick Pivetta
After taking a step forward in 2018, can Nick Pivetta improve even further and make his way to the top of the Phillies rotation?
Nick Pivetta started off his Phillies career with a trial by fire, making 26 starts for the third-worst team in baseball in 2017. He was prone to mistakes, serving up 25 home runs and walking 9.8% of opposing hitters. Both led to a 6.02 ERA, fifth-worst among pitchers with 130 or more innings.
Pivetta flashed enough potential despite his struggles to earn a fast track to a rotation spot last year. His advanced metrics were more favorable thanks to his high strikeout rate, indicating he had room to develop and improve his numbers.
Early on last year, Pivetta showed just how good he can be, posting a 3.26 ERA and 2.80 fielding-independent pitching through the first two months of the year. In 11 starts during that span, he had a 4.79 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 1.09 WHIP, and 8.9% home run to fly ball rate. His success had people talking about his potential as a No. 2 starter behind Aaron Nola.
From that point on, Pivetta struggled with a 5.60 ERA and 19 home runs allowed in his last 21 starts. He was still striking out batters at a high rate, but his walk rate and batting average against both rose significantly. Pivetta looked more like his 2017 self than the one from earlier that year.
Altogether, Pivetta finished 2018 with a 7-14 record, 4.77 ERA, 3.80 fielding-independent pitching, 27.1% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate, 2.8 Fangraphs wins above replacement, and 2.3 Baseball-Reference wins above replacement. It was certainly better than his rookie year, but he still has plenty of room to improve this year.
Pivetta’s role in 2019
The starting rotation for the year is pretty much set as the team is not likely to make any more additions before the regular season begins in three and a half weeks. Pivetta likely slots in behind Jake Arrieta as the No. 3 starter, ahead of Vince Velasquez and Zach Eflin. Nola, Arrieta, Pivetta, Velasquez, and Eflin will be the go-to rotation for the year barring any injuries.
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Given the star power now in the starting lineup, the rotation doesn’t need to be the best in the league to get this team to the playoffs. If you compare the 2019 Phillies to the 2008 World Series team, Pivetta is a more intimidating option at No. 3 than Jamie Moyer was. As a whole, this year’s rotation looks better than 2008’s by a good bit.
Assuming Pivetta performs as a functional mid-rotation starter, his role won’t be in any doubt.
In the event of a midseason acquisition, Velasquez or Eflin would be the ones most likely to get bumped over Pivetta. That all hinges on Pivetta remaining healthy and continuing to improve, but at this point, there’s no reason to doubt he will.
The 2019-20 free agency class will feature some of the best pitchers in the game like Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, and Justin Verlander. Philadelphia still has the financial flexibility to pick up one of them if they feel the rotation still needs work after this season. Again, so long as Pivetta performs as he’s predicted, he wouldn’t be the one to lose a spot if a signing is made.
Projections for 2019
Thanks to the improvements Pivetta made and the success he showed early in the year, Pivetta is being talked about as a breakout candidate for the year. Mike Petriello of MLB.com named Pivetta one of his five breakout pitchers for the year, citing Pivetta’s high strikeout rate and swing-and-miss ability with his curveball.
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A key component of projecting a breakout for Pivetta this year is that the defense behind him won’t be the worst in the league. Pivetta falls under the category of a fly ball pitcher, so when he started last year, manager Gabe Kapler would be more comfortable starting Asdrubal Cabrera and Scott Kingery in the infield. This led to Pivetta having the highest batting average on balls in play among qualified pitchers, placing even more pressure on him.
This year, Pivetta will an adept defensive shortstop in Jean Segura along with a healthy Cesar Hernandez up the middle. Perhaps even more importantly, Rhys Hoskins and Nick Williams have been replaced by Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen in the corner outfield positions.
Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projection system projects Pivetta to finish the year with a 3.46 ERA, 2.4 wins above replacement, 1.18 WHIP, 168 strikeouts, 47 walks, and 148.2 innings pitched in 26 starts. Other projection systems are a bit more conservative with Pivetta’s ERA but still project him to be around two to three wins above replacement.
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If Pivetta limits his mistake pitches, it will lead to fewer disaster innings and an overall lower ERA. Having a better defense behind him should help things considerably. Pivetta has the ability to pitch like a high-end starter; he just has to show he can do it over a long period of time.