Fangraphs released their 2019 ZiPS projections for the Phillies Wednesday, projecting multiple bounce-back seasons from the position players.
One of the biggest questions of the offseason each year is how the Phillies will perform next year. Which players will bounce back, and which ones will regress? Various projection systems try to their best to answer these questions, with varying results.
Dan Symborski of Fangraphs released Philadelphia’s ZiPS projections for the 2019 season on Wednesday. Check it out to get the full breakdown of each player’s projected stats. Fangraphs has an entire breakdown of how projection systems work and how to apply them here.
Starting off with the position players, Rhys Hoskins is expected to have another big season. He is projected to hit 34 home runs, drive in 113 runs and post a .251/.351/.500 line and 125 OPS+. These numbers are all generally in line with his 2018 season. His WAR is projected to jump from 2.9 to 3.4, largely due to him moving back to first base with the departure of Carlos Santana.
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New additions Andrew McCutchen and Jean Segura are projected to become the team’s most valuable position players behind Hoskins. They are projected to rack up 2.7 and 2.5 wins above replacement, respectively, both of which are significant improvements compared to those positions last year.
Odubel Herrera is projected to earn 2.4 wins above replacement, a large jump from 0.9 last year, largely due to a recovery in defensive value. Cesar Hernandez is projected to earn the same amount of WAR, but he should outperform these projections given that he spent the second half of last year with a broken foot.
Turning towards the pitching staff, Aaron Nola is projected to earn 4.5 WAR after earning 5.6 in 2018. If he pitches like he did last year, he will outperform his projection as well. Nola is the only starter projected to finish with an ERA below four and over two wins above replacement. Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Jake Arrieta, and Zach Eflin are the next-most valuable starters, in that order.
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Enyel De Los Santos, Ranger Suarez, and Jerad Eickhoff are projected to earn 1.2, 1.1, and 1.0 wins above replacement, respectively. These WAR totals can change depending on how the rotation shakes out during spring training.
Seranthony Dominguez is projected to be a big contributor again in the bullpen with a 3.03 ERA and 1.6 wins above replacement in 63 appearances.
It should be noted that all these projection systems tend to err on the conservative side. As mentioned above, Nola and Hernandez, and potentially several other players could drastically outperform their projections. These models just do the best they can to predict how players will perform.