Phillies opening contention window with Jean Segura trade
With the acquisition of Jean Segura, combined with offseason plans, the Phillies have made it clear that they intend to open their contention window now.
As fans have gathered, with the impending acquisition of Jean Segura and pursuit of Patrick Corbin, Manny Machado, and Bryce Harper (among others) in free agency, the Phillies have sent a message that they are interested in contending now. Not a few years from now, but now.
Segura had 4.3 wins above replacement in 2018, which passes the benchmark for a starter (2.0), and is just short of All-Star caliber (5.0). He had an OPS of .755, and an OPS+ of 112, both above league average. That WAR would automatically place him second on the team behind only Aaron Nola.
Segura’s level of production should improve the team, but it is also a signal that they really didn’t deserve a sniff at the playoffs after all.
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After winning the World Series in 2008, the Phillies have taken a step back almost every year since. In order, from champions in ’08 to losing the World Series in ’09, to losing the NLCS in ’10, NLDS in ’11, missing the playoffs with a .500 record in ’12, 4th place in ’13, last in ’14 and ’15, and meddling around in the bottom half of the division since then.
That appears to be changing, as the team’s window for contention will quickly open. If big names are signed and defensive improvements are made, this team has the potential to win a playoff round (or hopefully more) come 2019.
Segura’s batting line last year was .304/.341/.415 with 10 home runs, 63 runs batted in, 32 walks, and 69 strikeouts. Certainly not quite the mold of a Gabe Kapler player with those walk totals, but he makes a lot of contact and puts the ball in play.
Segura made 17 errors in 1260.2 innings and had 5 defensive runs saved. I’m slightly concerned how the Phillies defensive scheme will change those numbers and affect his value, as it did negatively with practically every single player on the roster last year.
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Segura will take Scott Kingery’s place at shortstop, who (unless he is involved in the deal) will probably move over to second base if the team plans on keeping him. Cesar Hernandez is really looking like the odd man out now. It looks like Rhys Hoskins will move back to first with Carlos Santana and J.P. Crawford heading out to Seattle.
In terms of batting order, Segura led off in 14 games, hit second in 116, and hit third in 14. He is an on-base guy who can set your team up for early-inning runs. Now playing 81 games a year at Citizens Bank Park, his power numbers should see a slight increase (although WAR is adjusted for ballparks).
It is incredibly important that the Phillies balance the presence of players such as Segura (29), who are at their peak and will be for about three or four more years, with consistent improvement from those who are younger (especially defensive improvements from Hoskins, Nick Williams, and Kingery).
This will allow them to extend their contention window longer than its current timeline. Adding superstar players like Machado and Harper entering their age 26 season certainly helps their case as well.
Segura will soon be a Phillie, and this was a great deal for the club. I wasn’t as high on Crawford as others were, as he never really figured out how to hit in the minors. However, he will be entering his age-24 season and will almost certainly be in the starting lineup night in and night out for the Mariners.
Next. What's a fair price for Segura?. dark
With that said, 2019 will be better for the Phillies. With Jean Segura, the team is serious about opening its contention window as soon as possible.