Phillies free agency target profile: Third baseman Mike Moustakas
The Phillies are looking for an upgrade at both positions on the left side of the infield. Could Mike Moustakas be the upgrade they need at third base?
Todd Zolecki of MLB.com wrote Monday about the possibility of the Phillies looking for an upgrade at third base this offseason, whether it be via free agency or trade. One of the names he brought up was former Royal and Brewer Mike Moustakas.
Moustakas was a free agent last offseason and rejected the qualifying offer given to him by the Royals. However, with free agency at a standstill for most of the offseason, he bet on himself and elected to re-sign with the Royals on a one-year deal.
With the Royals among the worst the teams in the league, they traded Moustakas at the deadline to the Brewers. He became Milwaukee’s starting third baseman and helped them reach the postseason for the first time since 2011. Moustakas had a mutual option for 2019 but elected free agency instead. Now he is primed to get a much bigger contract.
With Moustakas on the market and Philadelphia looking to make an upgrade, should they work out a deal with the 30-year-old?
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Reasons to sign Moustakas
In 2018, Phillies third basemen were okay but not exactly great either. They ranked 23rd in Fangraphs wins above replacement (1.4), 21st in batting average (.240), 23rd in on-base percentage (.299), 12th in slugging percentage (.421), and 19th in wRC+ (92). They were 16th in expected weighted on-base average (.312).
2018 was a down year for Moustakas, but he was still above league-average as a hitter. He finished the year with a .251/.315/.459 line, 28 home runs, 62 extra-base hits, 95 runs batted in, and a 108 OPS+.
Moustakas only played 27 games in 2016, but he was an All-Star in both 2015 and 2017. In 2015, his breakout season, he had an .817 OPS, 22 home runs, and 82 runs batted in. In 2017, he had 38 home runs (a franchise record), 85 runs batted in, and an .835 OPS. If he returns to that performance in the next few years, he would be a significant upgrade.
Reasons to not sign Moustakas
The biggest question to answer regarding Moustakas is exactly how much of a difference he makes. These are his 2018 combined stats compared to Maikel Franco’s last year:
As a whole, there wasn’t a huge difference between Moustakas and Franco. The only tangible upgrade is the fact that Moustakas grades out better defensively, but even then he is only about average. Of course, 2018 was a good year for Franco and a relatively poor one for Moustakas. The two are rather similar hitters.
Based on their performances in the years prior, Moustakas should be at least somewhat better than Franco moving forward. On the other hand, there is some concern that Moustakas is on the decline now after hitting his peak from 2015 to 2017.
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The Phillies may only be looking at Moustakas as a backup option. The real prize for them this offseason is Manny Machado, who would play either shortstop or third base. Either way, if Machado does sign here, Zolecki stated the team would be willing to stick with internal options like Franco, J.P. Crawford, and Scott Kingery.
Verdict
Whether or not to sign Moustakas depends on a lot of things. For starters, if Machado does sign here, there isn’t much need for Moustakas. Plus, if Franco sticks around, the two are similar enough players that may not be worth it to sign Moustakas.
On the other hand, if Franco is traded (which he reportedly expects to happen) and Machado signs somewhere else, Moustakas could be a decent replacement. He is only predicted to get a two-year, $16 million contract this offseason, which is about the market value for Moustakas. Philadelphia wouldn’t be losing a whole lot by signing him.
Next. Santana trade interest could be healthy. dark
Ultimately, if the argument to sign a player is that he will be rather cheap, that shows what kind of production they are expected to have. He could be a good option for the team, but he should not be their priority.