Phillies free agency target profile: Starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi

The Phillies could be in the market to pick up another starter for their rotation. Former Rays and Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi could be their guy.

Phillies general manager Matt Klentak confirmed Wednesday at the GM meetings that he is looking to add to the rotation, specifically a left-handed arm. While Nathan Eovaldi is not left-handed, he is one of the better starters on the market and should be of interest to the club.

Eovaldi was linked to Philadelphia both by MLB Trade Rumors and Jim Bowden of the Athletic. Eovaldi was ranked as the No. 7 free agent in the class by both outlets.

With the Phils looking to boost their rotation, let’s take a look at why and why not to sign Eovaldi this year.

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Reasons to sign Eovaldi

As mentioned previously, Eovaldi is one of the better starters on the market. He slots in behind Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel as the third-best starter and best right-handed starter in free agency.

2018 was Eovaldi’s best season since 2013 with the Marlins. In 22 appearances with the Rays and Red Sox, Eovaldi had a 3.81 ERA, 5.05 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and 1.13 WHIP.

He had a strong postseason as well, making two starts and four relief appearances, including three relief outings in the World Series. He allowed just four earned runs in 22.1 innings.

Despite his talent, Eovaldi would not command that large of a contract. MLBTR predicted he will receive a four-year, $60 million contract this year. Bowden had a lower prediction at three years, $42 million. Either way, at most, the team shouldn’t be paying more than $15 million per year for Eovaldi.

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Reasons not to sign Eovaldi

The biggest question mark with Eovaldi, and a major reason Philadelphia has largely stayed away from free agent pitchers, is his injury history. He missed the entire 2017 season with his second Tommy John surgery. Eovaldi didn’t appear until May 30 this year as he had loose bodies in his elbow. He has made more than 22 starts just two times since 2012.

Beyond the injuries, this was an outlier year for Eovaldi compared to his career numbers. Over seven seasons, he has a 4.16 ERA, 3.82 fielding-independent pitching, 1.348 WHIP, and 2.47 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

This was the first year he struck out more than 20% of opposing hitters despite being a power arm his entire career. Whoever signs him will be betting 2018 was the new norm for him.

Ideally, the Phils would be better off signing a left-handed starter like Keuchel, Corbin, or Yusei Kikuchi. They have rarely used a lefty in the rotation the last few years and would ideally like to slide a lefty behind Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta.

Verdict

While Eovaldi had a strong 2018 season, his injuries are a major concern for any team that signs him. It’s no guarantee he stays healthy for a full season as he really hasn’t at all in the last several years. Plus, the team would be better served to find a left-handed starter for their rotation.

If the Phils can’t land one of the top lefties on the market, Eovaldi is a strong fallback option.