Phillies 2018 report card: First baseman Carlos Santana

The signing of Carlos Santana has drawn a lot of criticism from Phillies fans. Was signing him really that much of a mistake?

First base was not considered a priority for the Phillies last offseason. After the emergence of Rhys Hoskins at the end of the season, it seemed like they already had the position settled for 2018 and beyond. Despite this, the team signed longtime Indian Carlos Santana to a three-year, $60 million contract. This was a surprise to those inside and outside of Philadelphia.

However, the team explained their rationale for signing Santana, saying they wanted to bring in a veteran with his kind of track record at the plate. In eight seasons with Cleveland, Santana had a .249/.365/.445 line with 174 home runs and 587 runs batted in. That combination of on-base ability and power is something the team desperately wanted, so they shelled out the money to bring him in.

As with all players who sign significant contracts, they draw intense scrutiny from the fanbase and media. They want to know if their team is spending their money on the right players and getting good value from them. As the team struggled, Santana became a lightning rod due to his contract. Did he truly deserve this criticism? Let’s dive into his season.

Positives

An obvious positive for Santana this year was his ability to get on base. He finished third on the team among qualifiers in on-base percentage, just four points behind Cesar Hernandez for first. His 110 walks and 16.2% walk rate were both highest on the team. He had the second-most walks in the National League behind only Bryce Harper. His walk rate was tied for second-best in his career over a full season. He also set a career low with a 13.7% walk rate. The team was looking for Santana to get on base consistently, and he did just that.

Santana also had good power numbers, hitting 24 home runs and driving in 86 runs. Only Rhys Hoskins had more. He finished third on the team in isolated power (ISO) behind Hoskins and Maikel Franco. Any criticism that Santana wasn’t driving in runs or hitting for power simply wasn’t true.

Relative to the rest of the team, Santana had good defensive numbers. He finished the year even in defensive runs saved and slightly above league average with a 0.4 ultimate zone rating. While these aren’t great by any means, at least he wasn’t a defensive drag like many of his other teammates.

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Negatives

As a whole, this was a down year for Santana. His .229/.352/.414 line, 109 wRC+ and 1.9 Fangraphs wins above replacement were all well below his career average. He was especially bad to start the season, putting up a .571 OPS in March and April. When the team was struggling to start the year, he received plenty of blame for it.

Santana’s dip in batting average stemmed from a .231 batting average on balls in play, easily his lowest in any one season. He hit more fly balls and fewer line drives without hitting more home runs per fly ball, leading to more outs. In addition, Santana’s soft contact rate jumped from 18.4% in 2017 to 22.7% this year.

While this is by no means Santana’s fault, his signing put the outfield into limbo. Hoskins now had to play left field, putting up one of the worst defensive seasons in the league. Nick Williams and Aaron Altherr had to jockey for playing time before Altherr’s midseason demotion. This has now left a major question mark looking towards 2019.

While I will admit this was not a great season for Santana, to act like this signing was a terrible decision is short-sighted. Players have down seasons; Santana’s happened to occur when he changed teams. I am willing to trust eight years of success much more than one bad season and not let the recency bias affect my decision-making.

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Will he back?

Santana’s return is one of the bigger questions of the offseason for the Phillies. Like so many other things, it depends on what they do during the offseason. They could go so many different routes either in free agency or on the trade market; the lineup could look radically different when next year begins.

Santana’s high salary makes him a bit harder to move, but he is only under contract for two more years. The club could very well move on from him, but I think they would like to try him out one more year before cutting ties.

If Santana is a Phillie next year, the position he plays is far from certain. The simplest route is to just keep him at first base and run it back. The problem with this is that it leaves Hoskins and his awful defense in left field. One idea the team toyed with at the end of the year was having Santana play third, and it actually worked fairly well. They could decide to stick with this next year, but then that puts Franco’s role in question.

Santana’s season was one of the most polarizing things in the fanbase. He has his critics and his defenders. For now, we just have to hope he can return to his normal numbers in 2019.