Phillies 2018 report card: Relief Pitcher Hector Neris

Hector Neris came into the year as one of the Phillies’ best relievers, but he profusely struggled before turning things around later in the year.

Coming into the year, the major thought surrounding the Phillies was that their bullpen would have to pick up the slack for a starting rotation filled with question marks. Hector Neris came into the season as the closer to anchor a purportedly strong bullpen.

However, it became clear during the first game of the season that this season would be different for Neris. He gave up a three-run walk-off home run to Nick Markakis in what became an infamous opening series for the season.

Neris really didn’t get any better through the first three months of the season. At the end of June, he had a 6.90 ERA in 33 games. Neris blew three saves in 13 opportunities, including two in the span of a week in early June. He gave up 11 home runs in 30 innings. His trademark splitter had lost its effectiveness, and he was unable to perform without it.

Thankfully, after a demotion, Neris was able to recover and turn things around at the end of the season. His turnaround offers more than enough optimism for next season.

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Positives

An obvious positive for Neris was his ability to recover from his early-season struggles. The team demoted him to Triple-A at the end of June, hoping he could find what made him such an effective pitcher in years past. He came back revitalized with a 2.04 ERA, 0.05 fielding-independent pitching (no, that’s not a typo), and 7.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio from Aug. 15 to the end of the season.

One thing that was constant throughout the season was Neris’ strikeout ability. He struck out 37.4% of opposing hitters overall this year. His 14.35 strikeouts per nine innings were fifth-most among all pitchers with 40 or more innings pitched. He was especially dominant in August, striking out 20 batters in 10 appearances, winning him NL Reliever of the Month.

Neris’ high strikeout rate led to a decent 4.04 fielding-independent pitching. It’s by no means good but is only about 31 points higher than his FIP last year.

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Negatives

Basically, everything Neris did before his demotion was bad. As mentioned previously, his ERA was 6.90 by the end of June. Neris was relegated to a low-leverage role with the emergence of Seranthony Dominguez, but even then he continued to struggle. Since Dominguez was recalled, Neris posted a 9.00 ERA, allowing 17 runs on 10 home runs in 17 innings.

There were several occasions of Neris continuing to struggle even though the pressure wasn’t on. He gave up four runs in the ninth inning of a 10-9 win over the Brewers on June 17, then gave up five runs in a 17-7 loss to the Nationals.

That last appearance against Washington was the straw that broke the camel’s back to force his demotion.

The key thing that led to Neris’ struggles were home runs. He allowed 11 all year long (although all of them came before being demoted). His 22.9% home run to fly ball rate was sixth-highest in the league. He had some issues with home runs in years past, but they came to the forefront this year.

The two parts of Neris’ season average out to an average season. His 5.10 ERA and home run rate sure are ugly, but his late-season resurgence and 4.75 strikeout-to-walk ratio suggest he can bounce back moving forward.

Will he return?

Neris is entering his first season of arbitration eligibility. His pedestrian season-long numbers suggest he won’t get a great offer. His end to 2018 should keep him around to start next year.

Looking at next year’s bullpen, the team will likely have to play the numbers game with who they want to keep. Right now, Tommy Hunter, Seranthony Dominguez, and Pat Neshek are the only definite locks. There could be as many as eight pitchers competing for a bullpen spot, and that’s not factoring in anything that could happen with the starting rotation or any free agents brought in. Neris would have a leg up based on his experience, but there’s no guarantee he makes it.

Speaking personally, I think Neris restored the team’s confidence in him at the end of the season. His strong finish gave us a preview of what 2019 could be like for him.