Phillies: Will Odubel Herrera return or be traded in 2019?
As the Phillies season comes to an end is the Odubel Herrera era coming to an end as well?
The Phillies season is coming to an end a lot sooner than many had hoped for. After leading the East for a portion of the season and hanging within a series win of the lead for the rest of the year, the Phillies were swept in a potential series that could have put them back into contention.
But an ugly ending was the only disappointing portion of the Phillies season, arguably the second biggest disappointment being centerfielder Odubel Herrera.
Two months into the season Herrera looked like the National League MVP. Batting .313 with 19 extra base hits and 32 RBI while posting an impressive .370 OBP, Herrera looked like a top player in the league.
Things have been all downhill since. With a week remaining in the season Herrera is posting a .256/.313/.425 slash with a WAR of just 0.3. Herrera did post a career high in home runs and RBI however if he finishes the week with eight or less hits he’ll post a career low in that category.
Following the tough ending to the season Herrera’s future remains uncertain in Philadelphia. With a loaded outfield free agent class and the front office making it clear only Aaron Nola and Rhys Hoskins are unavailable it is hard to determine where Herrera will be playing 2019. So how does Herrera’s case to stay in Philly look?
Pros for Odubel
If you watched any of the Phillies games on ESPN this year you know Matt Vasgersian feels Herrera is one of the most exciting players in the game. Herrera does bring an electricity to the Phillies lineup. From home runs off Max Scherzer to home run saving catches, Herrera brings a spark to the team.
Herrera has set a high in home runs, RBIs, and a low in strikeouts thus far. He also stands to finish with his second-best career numbers for SLG, walks, runs, AB/PA and needs to play six more games to record a second best 148 games.
His season started with a ridiculous 41-game on-base streak and a five-game home run streak was equally captivating.
While this was a down year, Herrera has performed at an elite level over the first three years of his career. Prior to this season he had a career .289/.343/.430 slash with a 142 extra base hits and a 462 hits in just 444 career games. Despite not elite speed he posted a 71% successful stolen base percentage in those three years.
Herrera’s contract is also taken care of. The 2016 All Star will make just 23.05 million dollars over the next three seasons before reaching a team in option in 2022. Just over $7.5 million a year is incredibly cheap for a player of Herrera’s caliber.
Many forget Herrera went from playing second for the Rangers Double-A team right to the major leagues thanks to the Rule 5 Draft. His development was ramped up a couple of years and he’s still learning the nuances of the game.
Despite a down sided 2018, Herrera has posted All Star numbers throughout his career. He has often posted stretches in which he has looked like a top player in the league. With a little fine tuning, Herrera could look like that kind of a player over a 162 game span.
Cons of Odubel
As many reasons as there are to keep Herrera, there might be even more to get rid of him.
Before getting into the other options to fill his spot let’s acknowledge the bad parts of Herrera’s game. He has posted a career low in AVG, OBP, OPS, doubles, stolen bases, WAR and even posted WAA (wins above average) of -1.6. He posted a defensive WAR of -1.0, another career low, he finished with a career low in almost all sabermetric categories including oRAR, oWAR, 162WL%, RAR and posted a horrific -13 RAA.
On top of the poor play on the field Herrera also made his annual set of bone headed plays as well, most memorably costing the Phillies a sweep in Boston. From misread balls to poor baserunning Herrera occasionally plays with a baseball IQ and charisma that makes him look uncoachable.
Inconsistency and simple mistakes have been an issue throughout Herrera’s career and he still has yet to show some maturity as a player.
Another thing against Herrera is the surplus at his position.Let us start within the current roster.
Rhys Hoskins is the only lock in for the 2019 season, likely in Left field. This means he will likely be competing with Roman Quinn and Nick Williams.
Quinn brought a new life to the Phillies offense. The speedster was a spark plug in his 43 game stretch with the club, going 9-12 on stolen base attempts while tying the team high with three triples. While his sample size was smaller his .278/.322/.444 slash was higher than Herrera in every category.
Williams also had a good season posting a .256/.324/.425 line with 17 home runs and 50 RBI after starting the season on the bench.
Williams is also the better defender between him and Herrera, as he has a higher career fielding percentage, a stronger arm and makes fewer mental mistakes. It is a tough call between Herrera and Williams yet I would likely give the everyday nod to Herrera due to his higher ceiling. However Quinn might have the upper hand is argument simply due to the difference he brings as a weapon to the Phillies roster.
Free agents could cost Odubel his job
Now the coveted 2019 free agency. There is plenty of talent in the 2019 outfield class. There are guys like Michael Brantley, AJ Pollock, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Carlos Gonzalez who are all coming off solid seasons and would add good value to team for reasonably cheap. Then there is the man every GM has highlighted; Bryce Harper.
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The Phillies have more than enough money to give to the 26-year-old and securing Harper would be a major piece to the Phillies offense and would set them up tremendously for the future.
Herrera also could also add value as a trade piece. Teams could see the potential which Klentak could use to gain a lefty starter. The Phillies will definitely shop Herrera’s value this off season as they are expected to do with every player.
Predicting the future is hard and this is no exception. Herrera had arguably been the Phillies best player for the first three years of his career. His ceiling is as high as any player in the league, however he has failed to always live up to that potential.
Personally I would only trade Herrera for a very good left handed pitcher, something along the lines of Blake Snell which is incredibly unlikely.
Herrera has to much potential to simply give away. While his role may be uncertain I do not think his spot on the team should be.