For most of the season, the starting rotation was the strength of the Phillies. Now, like the rest of the team, it has struggled.
From the start of the season on, one thing became very clear about the Phillies: their rotation was good. Aaron Nola had developed into a true ace, Jake Arrieta bounced back from a down 2017, and Vince Velasquez, Nick Pivetta, and Zach Eflin all turned themselves into good mid-to-back of the rotation pieces.
Through July, Philadelphia ranked eighth in ERA, seventh in WHIP and strikeout-to-walk ratio, and fourth in fielding-independent pitching. They were the most consistent part of a team that lacked in consistency.
Over the last three weeks, the rotation has gone from a consistent strength to a weakness. Since Aug. 9, Philadelphia’s starters rank 17th in ERA, 19th in WHIP, 15th in fielding-independent pitching, and 21st in strikeout-to-walk ratio.
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During this time, Aaron Nola is the only one who has remained strong. He hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in a start during this stretch. The righty has now outdueled fellow Cy Young contender Max Scherzer twice in a row, even though the rest of the team ultimately blew it in the second matchup.
Otherwise, the rotation has taken a major step down. Pivetta has the highest ERA of the five main starters in this time, allowing 12 runs in 16.1 innings for a 6.61 ERA.
His struggles date all the way back to June; he has a 5.88 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and has surrendered 15 home runs in 78 innings since the start of that month.
Arrieta has not been much better with a 6.30 ERA in the last three weeks. He has allowed four or more runs in three of his four starts during this time. His numbers have been up and down all season, ranging from a 0.90 ERA in May to a 6.66 ERA in June.
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Eflin has one truly bad start taking down his overall numbers during this span. He allowed five runs (four earned) on 10 hits and two walks to the Nationals Aug. 22. He hasn’t been great for the most part in his other starts with a 5.48 ERA over the last three weeks.
Velasquez has the best ERA in the rotation besides Nola in the last three weeks at 4.76. Like Eflin, he has one truly bad start in the mix when he gave up three runs in 2.1 innings to the Red Sox on Aug. 15. His other two starts in this time were good, albeit short, allowing one run in four innings Aug. 21 and two runs in five innings Aug. 26.
Altogether, the rotation has not performed up to the level that they did for the first four months of the season. Hopefully, this is just a blip on the radar and they return to that production in September. If they don’t, then Philadelphia’s dim playoff picture will go completely dark.