Phillies pitching has received plenty of recognition in the Cy Young conversation, but has it been about the right guy?
I am not a huge fan of the win statistic for a pitcher. You could throw five eight-run innings and receive a “win” one day, but the next outing you could throw a no-hitter with the only base runner getting a little league home run on an error and get the loss. Personally, I do not believe it makes a lot of sense in how we judge pitching. I prefer ERA, WHIP, and even the quality start statistic. All more accurately describe a pitcher’s performance.
Take Monday night for example. The Phillies rode into Arizona hot off a four-game sweep, and in the midst of a five-game win streak. A series win while the Braves and Nationals clashed could put some serious space between them and the rest of the NL East. It would also be another statement win against a first-place team.
Jake Arrieta gave his team exactly what they needed tossing eight innings of scoreless baseball. He allowed just three hits, including just one after the fourth inning. The ball did not even leave the infield. While Arrieta only struck out four batters, he consistently induced poor contact to cruise past another playoff caliber team. On a night where the Phillies offense was largely quiet, Arrieta took the team into the bottom of the ninth with a multi-run lead.
Then, Seranthony Dominguez came in and blew his second save in as many appearances, raising his ERA half a point. A couple innings later they left the stadium losers without a “win” being added to Arrieta’s stat line.
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This was another brilliant outing by the right hander. Checking Twitter, I saw many fans and some members of the media ecstatic about how Arrieta was finally becoming the pitcher the Phils thought they were getting when they signed him for 75 million dollars in March.
Yet, with one exception, he has been more than that guy all year. Does everyone recall June? It was the only month so far that the Phillies had a losing record.
It was supposed to knock them back down to reality. While the team obviously did survive the dreaded month, it was not as friendly to Arrieta.
In June, Arrieta had a 0-4 record, 6.66 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, and opposing hitters had a .305 batting average against him. June was incredibly difficult for the 32-year-old and it left many questioning if Matt Klentak had made the right decision bringing in a washed up Arrieta onto the team.
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Let’s flip the narrative. Let’s pretend June never happened, completely wiped from existence. In 12 starts outside of June, he has a 9-2 record, 2.21 ERA, and 1.11 WHIP. Besides that one month, he has been unbelievable. His ERA would be fourth-best in baseball with a better winning percentage than the three pitchers above him. His WHIP would place him at eighth best in the National League, only two slots higher than it currently is.
Arrieta’s strikeouts have been his lone issue as even with June included he has yet to hit 100 on the year. His K/9 is the lowest it has been since his rookie year.
A Juneless Arrieta would not just be a Cy Young candidate, he would be the front-runner.
Even with the horrific June Arrieta still has very good numbers. He has a 3.11 ERA this year compared to last seasons 3.54. Arrieta has been more than what they thought they would receive when they acquired him last spring.
If you went to Matt Klentak and told him about the season Arrieta would have, he’d offer that deal quicker than you can say Phillie Phanatic.