Phillies updated playoff odds: Team becoming favorites in NL East
After the craziness of the trade deadline, what are the odds the Phillies make the playoffs, and maybe even the World Series?
To the surprise of many this year, the Phillies are legitimate playoff contenders. They have made a huge jump compared to last season and are now primed for a postseason push the last two months of the year.
General manager Matt Klentak made several moves to improve the team before the non-waiver trade deadline Tuesday. He traded pitching prospect Franklyn Kilome to the Mets for infielder Asdrubal Cabrera last Friday. Just before the 4 p.m. deadline Tuesday, the club acquired lefty reliever Aaron Loup for minor-leaguer Brandon Waguespack and catcher Wilson Ramos for cash or a player to be named later. All three moves address some of the team’s weaknesses this season.
After Tuesday’s win over the Red Sox, the Phils are 59-48 with a half-game lead over the Braves and a five-game lead over the Nationals in the National League East. It will certainly be a close race in the division, but who is expected to come out on top and make the playoffs?
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According to VegasInsider, Philadelphia is the favorite to win the division with 7-to-5odds. However, the Braves are a very close second with 7-to-4 odds. The Nationals are close as well with 2-to-1 odds. Vegas expects a very close race down the stretch.
Looking at the National League as a whole, the Dodgers have the best odds to win the pennant at 2-to-1. The Cubs are a close second at 3-to-1.
The field then widens with the Nationals at 9-to-1. The Phillies are tied with the Brewers for the fourth-best odds to win the pennant at 10-to-1. The Diamondbacks, Braves, and Rockies have 12-to-1 odds while the Pirates, Giants, and Cardinals are longshots at 25-to-1.
The Astros, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Yankees are the favorites to win the World Series. The Phillies are well behind them, tied for eighth with the Brewers at 20-to-1. Longshots for sure, but not impossibly out of reach.
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Looking at various projection systems, they all consider Philadelphia the favorites in the division, but they also expect a close race. Baseball Prospectus projects the club to have an 88-74 record, one game ahead of the Braves and five games ahead of the Nationals. The Phillies have a 65.3 percent chance to make the playoffs and 51.7 percent chance of winning the division. Their playoff chances have dipped 5.8 percent in the last week due to the four-game losing streak. They have a 15 percent better chance than the Braves and 40 percent better chance than the Nationals to win the division according to BP.
The Phillies are also the division favorites according to Fangraphs, but their odds aren’t as favorable. They are projected to finish with an 87-75 record with a 55.8 percent chance to make the playoffs. Per Fangraphs, they have a 44.5 percent chance to win the division, 11.3 percent chance to secure a wild card, and 2.1 percent chance of winning the World Series.
FiveThirtyEight projects an even closer race in the division. They project both Atlanta and Philadelphia to finish with an 87-75 record, with the Nationals close behind at 84-78. The Brewers and Diamondbacks are projected to get the wild card by this system, so the tiebreaker between the Phillies and Braves would be win or go home. If it makes you feel any better, Philadelphia has a seven percent better chance than the Braves to both make the playoffs and win the division.
Phillies Fans Should Be Optimistic After Deadline. dark. Next
No matter what, the last two months of the year will be exciting to watch with a tight race in the NL East ready to be played out.