Phillies 2018 season preview: Starting pitcher Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola returned to form as one of the top pitchers in the National League last year. Can he guide the Phillies rotation this year?

The Phillies have struggled to draft since the turn of the century. After drafting Cole Hamels in 2002, they have gotten little to no value from any of their first-round picks. This lack of talent in the farm system is what ultimately led them to fall back into the cellar in the National League East.

Aaron Nola, the team’s first-round selection in 2014, has bucked the trend of lack of production. He made his debut a year later, making 13 starts in the second half. He posted a 3.59 ERA, 3.58 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and 1.20 WHIP. As the team plummeted to the bottom of the league, Nola was one of the few bright spots.

2016 was not as ideal for Nola. It started off tremendously with him dominating the first two months of the season. However, things fell off quickly after that as he had a 9.82 ERA and 2.06 WHIP in his last eight starts of the year. Nola’s season was cut short after he suffered a small tear to the ulnar collateral ligament.

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There was a fear that Nola would have to undergo Tommy John surgery to heal his elbow. However, the team decided to let it heal without surgery, instead opting for a platelet-rich plasma injection and rehab. If Nola’s elbow could recover, there was reason to believe Nola could return to 2015/early-2016 form as he had good underlying numbers even when he was struggling (21.1 percent strikeout rate, 3.87 fielding-independent pitching, .451 batting average on balls in play).

Nola made three so-so starts to begin the 2017 season before ending up back on the disabled list with a back injury, missing a month of action.

After returning, Nola had the best stretch of pitching he ever had in his career. In 24 starts, Nola logged a 3.43 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 3.33 xFIP, 10.01 strikeouts per nine innings, 2.55 walks per nine, and 1.16 WHIP. He racked up 4.3 fWAR, easily best on the team and 12th among all pitchers. His 3.27 FIP on the season ranked ninth overall.

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Nola’s elbow held up the entire season, and his performance was exactly everyone was hoping for when he was drafted No. 7 overall. He was billed as a top-of-the-rotation starter, and he was just that last year.

Nola is projected to have another strong season by Baseball Prospectus. They project a 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 3.3 wins above replacement. Considering how well Nola has pitched when healthy, there is no reason to think he can’t match those numbers. There’s reason to think he can be a Cy Young candidate with a good enough season.

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While Philadelphia’s rotation has a lot of questions, Nola isn’t one of them. He is expected to lead the way, perhaps alongside Jake Arrieta if the club can land him. If the Phils are going to make a wild-card push this season, they will need Nola to have another dominant season.