Phillies Opposition Roadblock: Milwaukee Brewers
After losing 58 games in the first half, the Phillies look to get back on track with the passing of the All-Star Break.
No one expected 2017 to be the apex of the rebuild, but there were expectations of improvement. The Phillies had a bad mix of injuries, bad luck one run losses, and players who have regressed. The hope is that as they begin the unofficial second half of the season is that they can improve in all of those areas. They are tasked with the challenge of the NL Central leading Milwaukee Brewers.
Before we look forward, let’s look back at how the Phillies did against some of the players we highlighted would cause them trouble.
Wil Myers took a recent move into the leadoff spot and had run with it. Last weekend, Myers was 4-11 with two walks and a double. He also struck out twice in the Saturday matinee. While he went the entire weekend without scoring a run and barely made an impact on the series, Myers is still a presence in a very young and effective Padre lineup.
Phils Grade: B-
Jhoulys Chacin has strung together a series of impressive starts. Since June 3, Chacin has not allowed more than three earned runs. The trend continued before the All-Star break when the Phillies could not muster anything against the righty. He cruised through 6.1 innings, allowing a run on three hits and two walks. He struck out six Phils on his way to win number eight on the season. And the Phillies continued what was an incredibly frustrating 2017.
Phils Grade: D
Now, here’s who the Phillies have to deal with in Milwaukee.
The Team: Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers enter this weekend’s series nine games over .500 and in the lead of the division with last year’s World Champion Chicago Cubs. They are currently three games over .500 at home and six games over on the road.
Coming into the series the Brewers offense has been one of the main reasons for their success. They have scored 451 runs so far and ranked sixth in baseball in the category. They hit a ton of homers (138 to be exact) and are second in all of baseball, only ten behind the Houston Astros. They also sit in the top ten in OPS (.777) and stolen bases (75).
On the positive side for the Phillies, Milwaukee strikes out more than 28 other teams in baseball. They are currently tied with the Tampa Bay Rays for most Ks in the sport. They are one of five teams that have more than 800 strikeouts at this point in the season.
On the pitching end of things, they are finding some success as well. The Brewers have a team 4.08 ERA, ranking them eighth in baseball. In many other areas, including homeruns allowed, WHIP, average against, and strikeouts, Milwaukee ranks in the top half of the game. On the other hand, the Phillies can look for walk opportunities as the Brewer staff has handed out 315 free passes.
The Position Player: Travis Shaw
With a quick look at the Milwaukee lineup, there is nothing there that screams superstar. Outside of Ryan Braun, who has had less than 150 at bats due to injury, the Brewers are a group of younger players and nomads. Even with Braun on the roster, the Brewers have a fresher name for the Phillies to focus on this weekend.
Travis Shaw, a 27 year old third baseman, has been the Brewers best and most consistent offensive player this season. He holds a 2.9 OWAR this season and leads the team with 69 RBI, .299 average, .938 OPS. His 70 Ks are only fifth highest on the team, and his 19 homers are second only to the reborn first baseman Eric Thames.
Shaw has five hits (including a homer) in his last 15 at bats, has scored five runs, and knocked in four of them. He has also walked two times in that stretch. In the month of July, he has been even more successful (9-23, nine runs, two doubles, two homers, three walks, and eight RBI).
Shaw has never faced a single pitcher starting for the Phillies this weekend. He does have at bats against Pat Neshek, Hector Neris, and Joaquin Benoit, but is hitless in those three chances.
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The lefty is more successful against right-handed pitching than lefties, which bodes well for him this weekend. He looks to improve on his career .270/.341/.480 and 35 homers against Nick Pivetta, Aaron Nola, and Jeremy Hellickson.
Playing at home in his two year career, he has hit .308/.373/.547 with eight homers and 34 RBI in 43 games. The former Red Sock has made himself very comfortable in his new digs at Miller Park.
This season, Shaw has loved the fastball on the outer half and has not had much success on fastballs on the inner part of the plate. The same goes for breaking balls. Anything back foot to the lefty has given him trouble. It seems as though the Phillies starters will have to use the inner-half in order to get Shaw out consistently this weekend.
The Pitcher: Jimmy Nelson
Amazingly, the Brewers do not have what most fans would consider an ace. Their rotation consists of Jimmy Nelson, Zach Davies, Chase Anderson, Matt Garza, and Junior Guerra. This weekend, the Phils face the first two mentioned and Garza.
Nelson is coming off two seasons with at least 30 starts and is on pace to do it again. In both seasons, he has eclipsed 140 strikeouts and with 118 to this point is ready to shatter that number.
Nelson has been really strong for Milwaukee with ten quality starts and a strong 8-4 record this season. He leads the Brewers with 109 innings pitched, a 3.30 ERA, and 118 strikeouts. Nelson has K’d 9.74 hitters per nine innings.
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The right-hander has only had two starts in which he was blown up by offenses. Both of them came in April. The Cubs got to him for seven runs and the Braves put up five runs against him. Since then, he has started 13 games and has allowed three earned runs or less in ten of them. Eight of those starts were six innings or more, including a complete game, ten-strikeout performance at home against San Diego.
The Phillies have a few guys that have faced the 28 year old in their careers. Odubel Herrera, Tommy Joseph, and Cameron Rupp all have two hits against him. Maikel Franco has one in six at bats.
The Alabama product has been much better at home throughout his career. In 300 innings pitched at home, he holds a 3.54 ERA (4.92 on the road). He has started 51 games at Miller Park and has allowed a slash of .248/.316/.397 and 34 homers.
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It is interesting to note that Nelson does struggle with his command against lefties. He walked 13% of lefties he faced last season and relies heavily on his sinker to get grounders. Nelson gets quite a bit of groundballs, but does not avoid contact well. The Phillies will have to make the sinker come up in the zone because otherwise, it will be a very frustrating start to the unofficial second half of the season.