Phillies Opposition Roadblock: Boston Red Sox
Coming off yet another disappointing series, the Phillies head to a home-and-home with the Boston Red Sox, a team with championship aspirations.
A St. Louis Cardinals team that came in losing their last seven just toyed with the Phillies over the weekend. Aaron Nola was just about the only highlight worth mentioning on the Phillies pitching side of things. Odubel Herrera stayed hot and is once again showing that he is a very capable major league hitter. Now, they head to Boston for two away before two at home against the Sox.
Jedd Gyorko was 3-10 in the series. He walked one time and struck out three times. The third baseman contributed four RBI and a run over the course of the weekend. His two-run double really opened the game up when it was still within reach. Nick Pivetta then balked him home on one of the most obvious balks in the game’s history. Gyorko was average this weekend but did enough damage to stand out to anyone watching the series.
Phils Grade: C
This is a no brainer. It is simply an F. For those of you who watched the game, there is simply no argument against how dominant Carlos Martinez was in his effort. He had every pitch working and his command was impeccable. It seems as though Martinez has figured out what everyone who follows the Phillies wants Vince Velasquez to discover: He does not need to overpower for a full game. His complete game shutout included only four hits, a walk, and eleven strikeouts. Simply dominant.
Phils Grade: F
The Team: Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox are beginning to find their groove and only sit four games out of first place in the AL East. They are currently looking up at their rival New York Yankees, and are trying to build on their 5-5 record in their last ten. It seems as though the Phillies are the right team to get right against, so I would not bet against it.
The Boston offense has been pretty strong this season. Their 296 runs (4.8) per game is 12th in baseball and 5th in the strong American League. A .266 batting average is sixth best in the game and they rank 11th best in OPS (.749).
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Even scarier, the Red Sox strike out less than any other team in baseball and they grind out at-bats with 224 walks. The numbers are a nightmare matchup for a terribly inconsistent pitching staff.
The Red Sox are one of eight teams with a team ERA below 4.00 (3.99). They are also the only team in baseball with a staff that has allowed less than 170 walks. They have also struck out 590 opposing batters, which ranks them fourth (second in the American League).
Teams are hitting them a bit though (.256/.308/.424). The on-base percentage is to be expected with the limited number of walks. They have, however, allowed 78 homers, which places them in the top ten of baseball.
Defensively, they are extremely weak. Boston has committed 45 errors in 62 games. The number has given them a .980 fielding percentage and sitting in the basement of defensive rankings.
Still, there is no doubt that the next four days are going to be a struggle for the Phils.
Position Player: Xander Bogaerts
I had a really difficult time choosing a position player for this series. The Red Sox are loaded with talent throughout their roster. They have the perfect mixture of talented youth and veterans that are sprinkled in to make for a contender.
I debated going with Hanley Ramirez or Dustin Pedroia because of their histories against the Phillies. Both have had their successes when playing the Phils. Then, there is the youth movement with Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Mookie Betts. Oddly enough, I did not mention Mitch Moreland, who leads the team in on-base percentage and RBI.
I chose a player who was nearly written off by many as a bust not long ago. It looks as though Xander Bogaerts has figured it out and is becoming the star most people thought he would be. The shortstop is trying to build off his first 20 homer 100+ run season in 2016.
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This season, Bogaerts leads the Red Sox in runs (40), hits (74), and average (.325). His .829 OPS is good enough for second on the team. He does not walk a bunch (only 18) and will strike out a good amount (39 times). However, he is dangerous and can steal bases when he does find a way on base.
He has a hit in two at-bats against Jerad Eickhoff and two in six at-bats against Jeremy Hellickson. He has actually hit better against righties than lefties this season (.330/.392/.465 vs. .302/.311/.395). He has earned 17 of his 18 walks against right-handed pitchers.
Get the fastball in on Bogaert’s hands or it is likely that he will have success. He loves the outer-half of the plate and will drive the ball the other way. He is much more susceptible to the breaking and off-speed stuff. While he is still capable of driving those pitches, he is better when he can go fastball hunting early in counts.
In a loaded Red Sox lineup, it will be interesting to see how the Phillies approach one its youngest contributors.
The Pitcher: Chris Sale
Zero argument on this one. While Rick Porcello and David Price can dominate any game, especially against a lineup as feeble as the Phils, I went with a different arm. Chris Sale has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, so when the Red Sox got him, baseball knew they were once again in it to win it.
This season, Sale is 8-2 with a 2.97 ERA and WHIP of 0.96 in his 13 starts. In his first nine starts, the lefty had double-digit strikeouts. He has only allowed more than three earned runs in three of his starts. Only one time has he missed getting through the sixth inning. Teams own a frail .568 OPS against him thus far.
Six of the current Phillies have at least one hit off the southpaw. He faced the Phils last season and they were able to hit him around a bit. The Phillies scored six runs against him on seven hits, while striking out only five times over only four innings. That game was in Philadelphia.
Seeing as he is his start will be on the road, the Phils have somewhat of a chance Thursday. He is allowing teams to hit a robust .237 in their own parks. His ERA is more than a point higher on the road than at Fenway.
Over his career, he has not been the time to lose his dominance as a game moves along. Instead, he stays pretty steady. His fastball-slider combination is really what gets him by and makes him difficult, especially on lefties. At one point in his career, Sale did not allow a homer to a lefty for three seasons.
The flamethrower’s fastball tops out around 99 MPH and averages 95 MPH, while the slider sits around 80 MPH from his crazy arm slot. He has created 105 of his 126 strikeouts with those two pitches.
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Thursday should be a very difficult matchup for the Phillies. I fully expect to see a right-handed heavy lineup against the dominant Sale.