Phillies pitching prospect Drew Anderson has garnered a lot of attention since being placed on the 40-man roster in November. Where will he go from here?
The Phillies had a lot of prospects they needed to protect from the Rule 5 draft last offseason. They protected many top prospects including Nick Williams, Dylan Cozens, and Ricardo Pinto.
One player who was a surprise on the 40-man roster was pitcher Drew Anderson. The 22-year old himself was surprised when he found out he was added.
Anderson told Matt Gelb of Philly.com, “Just hearing that, it caught me by surprise. I had no idea what my potential was.”
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While it was a surprise to Anderson and those on the outside, the decision to add him to the 40-man was a no-brainer for team officials.
Team director of player development Joe Jordan said to Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly, “It was not a long conversation. The feeling was, ‘Put him on the roster. Don’t lose him. Let’s talk about the next guy.'”
Anderson has thrown just 70 innings since undergoing Tommy John surgery.
He missed all of the 2015 season and the beginning of the 2016 season due to the surgery.
However, Anderson came back in strong form last year. In 15 appearances between Low-A Lakewood and High-A Clearwater, Anderson posted a 2.70 ERA, 1.100 WHIP, and 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings. That short time has gone a long way in building up Anderson’s potential.
Jordan told Salisbury, “We’ve got scouts who will tell you that he might be our best pitching prospect” based on those 70 innings.” Considering some of the other pitchers in the system like Sixto Sanchez, Franklyn Kilome, and Adonis Medina, that is high praise for Anderson.
In 2017, Anderson will have to build off of what he started last year to make his way to the major-leagues. His fastball took a step up last year and can now reach the mid-90s. Paired with his curveball, the two pitches make an effective combination.
On the other hand, Anderson’s changeup still needs to be worked on and while it has the potential to be average, it isn’t there yet by any means. Anderson has also started to develop a slider, but it isn’t expected to be anything potential.
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Anderson’s control isn’t bad, but it isn’t really that good either. The righty walked 7.9% of opposing hitters in 2016, which is slightly below-average according to Fangraphs. Without a particularly dominant arsenal, Anderson’s control needs to be at least average to make his way as a starter, even if it is at the back of the rotation.
Fangraphs’s KATOH projection system gives Anderson about a 50-50 chance of making the major-leagues one day. His odds of being a decent major-leaguer (1-4 fWAR) are just over 10% according to KATOH.
Before Anderson can ever get to that point though, he has to progress through the upper-minors first. He is expected to start the 2017 season in Double-A Reading’s rotation. It will be hard for him to crack Triple-A Lehigh Valley’s rotation later on in the year, but his chances would strongly be aided by a potential trade of Clay Buchholz and/or Jeremy Hellickson and the trickle-down effect that would have on the organizational depth chart.
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The Phillies like what they have on their hands in Anderson, but the right-hander still has a ways to go before he can be a major-leaguer.