Phillies Pitcher Vincent Velasquez Should Look to Improve Curveball

If Phillies pitcher Vincent Velasquez improves upon his curveball, it could improve several aspects of his game at the same time.

Phillies pitcher Vincent Velasquez flashed dominance in 2016 when in his second start with the team he struck out 16 batters in a complete-game shutout. However, he still had his flaws as he struggled to go deep into games throughout the year as he often racked up high pitch counts.

When Velasquez was dominant, he relied primarily on his fastball. It averaged 94 miles per hour in 2016 according to PITCHf/x, which was 24th-fastest among starters with 100 or more innings. He used either his four-seam or two-seam fastball 64.4% of the time, which was the second-highest usage on the team.

Meanwhile, Velasquez used his curveball less than ten percent of the time. In fairness, it was his worst pitch, as its -7.6 PITCHf/x pitch value was the lowest of any of his pitches in 2016.

However, Velasquez has shown he can improve the pitch in the past. Here is a graph showing the average movement on Velasquez’s curve by year. 2016’s dot is the one all the way to the bottom right.

In 2014, Velasquez’s curve averaged 3.72 inches of movement to the right and 3.19 inches downward. In 2016, it moved 4.54 inches to the right and 7.66 inches downward, more than double its vertical movement.

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If Velasquez can continue to improve the pitch’s movement, it should get better as time go on.

One aspect of Velasquez’s game that he needs to improve upon is pitching to contact. While he struck out an immense amount of batters – 10.44 batters per nine innings – it caused Velasquez’s pitch count to skyrocket. Part of being an effective starting pitcher is being efficient, which Velasquez has struggled to do so far in his time in Philadelphia.

Believe it or not, Velasquez’s curveball may very well be a part of what makes Velasquez a better pitcher against contact.

Batters often did damage when they made contact with Velasquez’s pitches. He gave up home runs on 14.9% of the fly balls he allowed, a rate worse than “awful” according to Fangraphs. Velasquez allowed more fly balls than any other type of batted ball at 41.2%. Its safe to say that if Velasquez intends to pitch to contact without giving up an immense amount of runs, he will have to induce more ground balls.

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Velasquez’s curveball may be just what he needs to increase his ground ball rate. Brooks Baseball’s “Pitch Repertoire At-A-Glance” feature describes Velasquez’s curve as having “sharp downward bite” and noted it “results in somewhat more groundballs compared to other pitchers’ curves.” In 2016, it produced ground balls 58.33% of the time according to Brooks Baseball. Teammate Aaron Nola, who thrives off the ground ball, induced a ground ball with his curve at a very similar rate of 55.79% of the time last year.

Nola used his curveball 33.71% of the time in 2016, which prodded him to success early in the season. Velasquez could see that same type of success and raise his ground ball rate from 34.8% if he increased the usage of his curveball.

Velasquez intends to work on his curveball during spring training this year in the hopes of making it a more important part of his arsenal. He told Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer:

“It was a good pitch to use, but I didn’t really use it as much as I should have. I really didn’t command it as much. I’m trying to lock in on one target and try to hit that every time. I utilized it a lot in the offseason in bullpens. I’m trying to master it as much as I can. I know it’s a good out pitch to use, but I also have a high percentage of getting guys out with my regular fastball. If I can move up and down in the zone, getting ahead of guys and putting guys away with it, then I’m definitely going to use it.”

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If Velasquez does improve his curveball, it could improve several aspects of his game at once.