Phillies Players that Could Be Traded by the Start of 2017
This winter will see a bevy of trades in the MLB. Who are some players in the Phillies organization that could be traded by the time spring rolls around?
No more speculation and rumors occurs than during the MLB trade deadline and the offseason. Winter meetings are just a month away, and the Phillies will certainly keep their ears open to any trades, as shown by the recent Pat Neshek deal.
While the Phillies may bring in some players during trades, other teams will also look to pry away some of the more talented players on the team. Ken Giles seemed like a long-term piece in the Phillies rebuild heading into the last offseason, but he was traded at the 2015 winter meetings. The Giles trade showed that few, if any, players are untouchable to Matt Klentak and Co.
There are multiple players in the Phillies organization that could conceivably be traded this offseason. Todd Zolecki of MLB.com said the team would be “open-minded” to any and all potential trades this offseason. This list isn’t limited to major-league players; several prospects could also wind up being traded.
RHP Vincent Velasquez
Most rumors surrounding the Phillies this offseason revolve around pitcher Vincent Velasquez. Talks for a potential Velasquez trade with the Rangers at this year’s deadline got “pretty deep” according to Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly.
Since the club acquired Velasquez from the Astros in the Ken Giles trade, he flashed serious potential. He wowed fans and club personnel alike. Manager Pete Mackanin jokingly said “It looks like we made a pretty good trade” and catcher Cameron Rupp said “He [Velasquez] was blowing everybody’s doors off with” his fastball according to Stephen Gross of the Morning Call.
Velasquez finished the year with 10.44 strikeouts per nine innings, the highest for a Phillies starting pitcher with 130 or more innings since Curt Schilling in 1997. Velasquez made it evident that he could strike batters out.
The problem with Velasquez this season was his inefficiency on the mound. He made it beyond the sixth inning just three times in his 24 starts this season.
The reason why the Phillies might wind up trading Velasquez is simple; there are few pitchers in the league who can dominate hitters like Velasquez can. The starting pitching free agency market is markedly slim this offseason. Velasquez will also be relatively cheap for years to come. He isn’t arbitration eligible until the 2019 season and won’t be a free agent until after the 2021 season.
A trade for Velasquez would have to net the Phillies a legitimate haul, including one or two higher-level prospects. A team like the Rangers has the farm system to afford Velasquez; it just boils down to whether or not the two clubs could reach an agreement.
CF Odubel Herrera
The Phillies struck gold on Odubel Herrera in the Rule 5 draft in 2015. After a four-win season in his rookie campaign, Herrera repeated that in 2016. He led the team in wins above replacement both years and was the club’s lone representative at this year’s All-Star Game.
Herrera surprised most people with his offensive performance after jumping from Double-A to the majors. In his major-league career so far, Herrera has a .291/.353/.419 line in 306 games. He saw development from his rookie year this season with a higher walk rate and lower strikeout rate along with twice as many home runs.
Along with his offensive performance, Herrera was also a solid defender both seasons. Herrera posted a UZR/150 of 9.9 his rookie season in center field. This year, he recorded 11 assists and four double plays, good for second and first, respectively, among all National League center fielders. Herrera is nominated for the Gold Glove Award, which will be announced Tuesday night.
Most teams would be ecstatic to have a player with Herrera’s production on their roster. He was worth $30.8 million this year according to Fangraphs with a salary of just $528,000.
As I mentioned in my article about a potential trade for Herrera last week, a trade for Herrera would require multiple top-tier prospects that few teams will be able to afford to lose. If a team is able to put a package together worthy of Herrera’s production, then don’t be surprised if a trade happens. If someone can’t, I’d be more than happy to have Herrera in the Opening Day lineup when 2017 starts.
Catching Prospect Andrew Knapp
Sometimes a player just won’t be able to fit on the big-league roster long-term, and that’s what might happen to Andrew Knapp. He would be the best catching prospect on a lot of other teams, but Knapp is stuck behind Jorge Alfaro on the Phillies. Alfaro got a cup of coffee in the majors in September, yet Knapp didn’t get to make his debut.
Knapp put himself on the radar in 2015 with a ridiculous stint at Double-A Reading. In 55 games, Knapp had a 1.050 OPS and hit 11 home runs. He mashed his way to the Paul Owens Award as the best hitting prospect in the organization that year.
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However, 2016 didn’t nearly go as well for Knapp in Triple-A. Knapp posted a .266/.330/.390 line with Lehigh Valley. As mentioned before, Knapp was leapfrogged by Alfaro as the latter got to make his major-league debut in September.
Josh Norris of Baseball America said after the season wrapped up that Alfaro was ahead of Knapp in terms of development. Norris said Alfaro “projects as the long-term heir to Carlos Ruiz.”
If the Phillies really do see Alfaro as the long-term option behind the plate, Knapp may become the odd one out. Considering the rarity of hitting catchers in baseball these days, a top-100 propsect like Knapp would be a valuable acquisition for many teams. Just five catchers landed on Baseball America’s Midseason Top 100 list, and the Phillies have two of them.
Most project Knapp to be Cameron Rupp’s backup in 2017. However, he is by no means the only option to back up Rupp if the Phillies so desire. The Phillies obviously have enough confidence in Alfaro to be in the major-leagues if they called him up in September and he is already on the 40-man roster. If the team would rather see Alfaro get some more time to develop in Triple-A, multiple free agent catchers are on the market as well.
Knapp could fetch an average starter on his own in a trade, or he could become part of a package for a higher-quality player. The best time to cash in on Knapp would be now since he is just one year removed from his monster season at Reading.
2B Cesar Hernandez
If there’s anyone that would be a “cash in now” candidate on the Phillies, it would be Cesar Hernandez. After a 2015 that saw Hernandez create just 0.9 rWAR as Chase Utley’s backup for most of the year, he really broke out in 2016. As the everyday starter, Hernandez was worth 3.3 rWAR in 155 games. He finished the year with a .294/.371/.393 line, stealing 17 bases and leading the league with 11 triples.
Looking at those stats, one would think Hernandez would be destined for a long-term spot on the team. However, a couple key factors could lead to a trade.
The biggest influence on the possibility of a trade is the looming debut of No. 1 team prospect J.P. Crawford. While Crawford is a shortstop, his eventual call-up will cause a logjam in the middle of the infield. The Phillies like what shortstop Freddy Galvis did this season in terms of power, and that along with his Gold Glove-caliber defense may be what edges him over Hernandez.
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If Hernandez isn’t going to be the everyday second baseman, it’s hard to see him holding a bench spot for the Phillies. That is only furthered by the fact that Hernandez is an overall below-average fielder. Hernandez is worth -0.8 dWAR in his career according to Baseball Reference. Hernandez has a 5.1 UZR/150 at second, -6.9 at shortstop, and -10.2 at third in his career. It’s hard for someone to be a utility infielder if they are below-average at most of the positions on the infield.
Also, Hernandez can be one of the most frustrating players to watch on the Phillies, especially on the basepaths.
While Hernandez did steal 17 bases this year, he was caught stealing 13 times. Manager Pete Mackanin called Hernandez’s inability to steal at times “disappointing.” He told Ryan Lawrence of Philly Voice, “You’d like to steal more bases, put pressure on the defense, get runners into scoring position, and that’s one aspect of his game he’s got to improve on.”
For all of Hernandez’s negatives, there is still enough for teams to buy in on. He showed solid plate discipline this season with a 10.6% walk rate and 18.6% strikeout rate. His .371 on-base percentage was 22nd among all qualified hitters in the MLB this season. Hernandez can also make contact at above-average rates, making contact on 63.1% of pitches outside the zone and 89.9% inside the zone.
Hernandez is also a cheap option at second base for his level of production. Phuture Phillies projects Hernandez’s salary to be $2.5 million in 2017. Considering Hernandez was worth $35.2 million this season according to Fangraphs, that is quite a lot of surplus value for a team. Even if Hernandez regresses to his 2015 numbers where he was worth $11.5 million, he will still produce plenty of bang for someone’s buck.
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If a team needs a short-term option at second base who can provide speed and contact at the top of the order, Hernandez would fill in that role well. He wouldn’t fetch any big-time prospects, but the more prospects the better.