Aug 29, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies catcher Cameron Rupp (29) talk with Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Jake Thompson (44) during the seventh inning against the Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park. The Nationals defeated the Phillies, 4-0. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 29, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies catcher Cameron Rupp (29) talk with Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Jake Thompson (44) during the seventh inning against the Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park. The Nationals defeated the Phillies, 4-0. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports /
With the post-2016 prospect rankings underway, it’s time to take a look at prospects No. 21-25 in the Phillies system. This section features plenty of pitchers.
The Phillies, like many other teams, will need pitchers, and lots of them. This year alone, Charlie Morton, Aaron Nola, and Zach Eflin all suffered season-ending injuries. Jeremy Hellickson and Vincent Velasquez also each spent time on the disabled list.
Someone will have to fill the holes in the rotation left by injuries. In 2015, the Phillies had the likes of Jerome Williams, Chad Billingsley, and Kevin Correia start games. Meanwhile, the team had to use just one journeyman, Phil Klein, in the rotation this year.
The Phillies didn’t need journeyman starters this year because they were able to develop starters internally. The Phillies filled the rotation with players from their own minor-league system, including Eflin, Adam Morgan, and Jake Thompson.
Next season, the same should still hold true. Velasauez, Eflin, Eickhoff, and hopefully Nola should all return to the Opening Day rotation. Out of MLB.com’s top 30 Phillies prospects, 14 are pitchers, including some in this section. The team should have a pipeline of starters when injuries inevitably strike.
Without much more rambling, let’s dive into prospects No. 21-25 in the rankings.
No. 25: Left-Handed Pitcher Bailey Falter
The Phillies drafted Bailey Falter in the fifth round of the 2015 draft, signing the then-high schooler to a $420,000 bonus. He made a solid debut in the organization, walking just three batters in 28.2 innings with the GCL Phillies. The lefty had a 2.89 FIP, which was notably lower than his 3.45 ERA in his eight appearances.
While Falter’s control eased his way into professional action, he didn’t really have any electric stuff. Listed at 6’4 175, a lot of his stock came from the projection scouts saw in him. Falter’s fastball sat in the high-80s when he was drafted, so he definitely needed the projection.
Despite being just 19 years old, the team decided to test Falter out at short-season Williamsport this year. The move paid off for them, as he pitched even better than the year prior. Falter nearly doubled his innings count from the year, tossing 59.2 with the CrossCutters. While his 1-6 record doesn’t indicate much success, his 3.17 ERA and 2.96 FIP do.
Falter bumped up his strikeouts, punching out nearly a batter per inning at 8.9 strikeouts per nine. His command faltered in some starts, walking four batters in one and three in two others. Even then, his 6.5% walk rate was still above-average.
Moving onto his secondary pitches, Falter’s best offspeed offering is his changeup, which is already average if not above-average.
Falter also offers a curveball, but it lags behind his other two pitches. It wouldn’t be a shock if the Lakewood coaching staff forces Falter to use it more and put his changeup on the backburner next season.
The optimistic view is that the development staff can add velocity to Falter as they did with other talented arms like Franklyn Kilome and Adonis Medina. If they can do that, Falter would rocket up rankings with a mid-rotation profile. Despite that, physical development is no surefire thing and Falter could wind up as another back-end, Quad-A arm like Adam Morgan.
No. 24: Right-Handed Pitcher Alberto Tirado
If you want the definition of a pipe dream, you have it right here in Alberto Tirado. His fastball runs in the high-90s consistently and his slider is a definite plus pitch. The changeup could also be an above-average pitch that flashes better with work.
From everything I’ve said so far, it sounds like Tirado should be way higher on this list, right? Well, I haven’t mentioned the biggest hole in his game: his control. Tirado’s control is well, well below average bordering on laughable.
Tirado’s control is well, well below average bordering on laughable.
After the Phillies acquired Tirado from Toronto in the Ben Revere trade last year, he joined High-A Clearwater’s bullpen. He had a 0.56 ERA in nine appearances, but also walked more batters than he struck out at 10.13 walks per nine innings.
This season, Tirado started in Low-A Lakewood’s pen, hoping to regain form against a lower caliber of hitters. Instead, his struggles only continued, as he carried a 8.59 ERA and walked a fifth of the batters he faced in April. The team sent him back to extended spring training, giving him a trial run in High-A Clearwater after a month. In two appearances, his walks were still through the roof.
Thankfully, there is still a beacon of hope for Tirado. After rejoining Lakewood at the end of June, he oddly did better in the rotation compared to his time in the bullpen. Tirado struck out an astronomical amount of batters with a 36.3% strikeout rate. His walk rate of 11.1% was by no means good, but it was an encouraging sign after giving out so many free passes earlier in the year.
If Tirado somehow finds at least workable command, the Phillies have an electric pitcher on their hands. He could anchor the back of a bullpen or be an effective starter. Sadly, that probably won’t happen, and Tirado will likely end up as a flashy middle reliever at best.
The team seems to be holding onto the hope that Tirado could be a starter, and they will likely see how he fares in the Clearwater rotation next season. He is Rule 5 eligible this year, but it is hard to imagine any team selecting him considering how inconsistent his control is.
No. 23: Left-Handed Pitcher Cole Irvin
For the second year in a row the Phillies took a left-handed pitcher in the fifth round of the draft. This time, it was a 22-year old college arm in Cole Irvin. Irvin logged a 3.17 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 105 innings with Oregon in his senior season. The Phillies used some of the money they saved drafting Mickey Moniak to sign Irvin well above his slot at a $800,000 bonus.
After signing with the organization, Irvin joined short-season Williamsport. His innings were limited considering the heavy workload he underwent in college, as Irvin tossed 45.2 innings with the CrossCutters. In ten appearances – seven of which were starts – Irvin allowed opposing hitters a meager .205 average. He carried a 1.97 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in that span.
In addition, Irvin offers two solid secondary pitches in his changeup and breaking ball. He commands the latter so well Mitch Rupert of the Williamsport Sun-Gazette said Irvin could “hit a gnat in the ass” with it in one of his starts.
There isn’t much development left for Irvin, and he will likely move very fast through the system. With solid command a workable three-pitch mix, it’s an easy to see him as a back-end starter type. The team would be wise to keep an eye on his arm due to his previous Tommy John surgery, but a full-season workload in 2017 is likely with a major-league arrival probably coming no sooner than 2019.
No. 22: Right-Handed Pitcher Nick Pivetta
Nick Pivetta was the only piece the Phillies got back in exchange for Jonathan Papelbon at the trade deadline last year. I was hoping for more in the trade, but the Phillies didn’t have much leverage considering what a poor clubhouse presence Papelbon is. Pivetta’s debut in the organization was rough, as he posted a 7.31 ERA in seven starts with Double-A Reading.
Thankfully, Pivetta looked much better this time around in Double-A. In 22 starts, Pivetta posted a 1.20 WHIP and 3.41 ERA. He posted the highest strikeout rate of any full or partial season in his minor-league career; well, until he was promoted to Triple-A anyway.
Pivetta made five starts in Triple-A Lehigh Valley in the last month of the 2016 season. In 24.2 innings, he struck out 27 batters but also walked 10. The righty ended his stint there with a 2.55 ERA.
Pivetta’s calling card is his power sinker, which he can run into the mid-90s. However, he operates more as a strikeout pitcher, using his curveball to punch guys out. Pivetta also possesses a changeup, but it is a below-average pitch that still needs to develop.
On the command side, Pivetta is a still a trip. When Pivetta can control his arsenal, he is a strong pitcher on the mound.
More times than not, Pivetta can’t command his pitches and he struggles mightily.
The hope is Pivetta can stay in the rotation as long his command develops. He could even work his way into the middle if his changeup improves as well. That’s banking on a lot of ifs, and some evaluators feel like Pivetta will end up in the bullpen down the road.
No. 21: Third Baseman Cole Stobbe
The Phillies went hitter-pitcher-hitter-pitcher to start off this year’s draft, taking Cole Stobbe in the third round. The team signed Stobbe for $1.1 million out of a Nebraska high school. Stobbe was old for his class, as he turned 19 years old on August 30.
Stobbe began his professional career well with the GCL Phillies. In 44 games, he carried a .270/.337/.405 hitting line. His wRC+ of 123 suggests he was an above-average hitter in the GCL. Stobbe also flashed some power with four home runs this season.
Stobbe’s discipline was about what you would hope for. His 8.3% walk rate and 17.9% strikeout rate were both about average to above-average.
The hope for Stobbe is that he develops five average tools in time. At the plate, Stobbe offers a clean swing with plenty of line-drive ability. As I mentioned earlier, Stobbe flashed some power this year and it should only develop as he ages and gets stronger.
Right now, Stobbe is a decent fielder at shortstop, making all the routine plays. However, a move to third base is likely because he will lose a step as he gets bigger and stronger. His average arm and speed should play well from the hot corner.
According to MLB.com, one scout called Stobbe a “poor man’s version of Rockies rookie sensation Trevor Story.” While Phillies fans would be ecstatic to have that kind of player, Stobbe is still a long way away from reaching that profile. He will likely start 2017 in extended spring training before heading to short-season Williamsport.
