Phillies Land at No. 24 in ESPN’s First 2017 MLB Power Rankings

ESPN ranked the Phillies as the No. 24 team in MLB to start the season despite their projected 67-95 record, second-worst in the league.

ESPN released their first set of power rankings for the 2017 season, and unsurprisingly the Phillies wound up towards the bottom. ESPN ranked the Phils as the No. 24 team in MLB to start the season.

If the rankings were based solely on projected record, Philadelphia wouldn’t be this high. Their projected record of 67-95 according to ZiPS puts them at second-worst overall, ahead of only the San Diego Padres. Instead, ESPN put the Phils ahead of teams projected to finish with better records like the White Sox and the Athletics.

In this edition of their power rankings, ESPN highlighted each team’s “best case”, “worst case”, and “swing factors”. They also displayed the team’s rolling projected win percentage to show the high and low points of the season. Here is Philadelphia’s:

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In the best-case scenario, ESPN says Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera will show they are cornerstone pieces in the lineup while J.P. Crawford makes his way to the major leagues and also makes his way into the lineup.

In addition, ZiPS projects Philadelphia’s peak win percentage to come in early July at about .435, which would equate to about a 70 or 71-win pace.

At that time, they have a 19-game stretch against all losing teams. However, ZiPS projects the Phils’ record to plummet from there.

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Philadelphia’s low point of the season will be early on according to ZiPS during a late April stretch where the team plays the Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals, and Rangers. At that point, ESPN says the Phils could find themselves at the bottom of the standings.

A turning point for the season could also come early on as the Phils play 12 straight against the Nationals and Mets in April. If Philadelphia has any chance to be a “Cinderella story”, ESPN says April is the time to start it.

ESPN also stated that the worst-case scenario for the team would be if the rotation struggles to stay healthy.

Also, part of the worst-case scenario would be if the veterans acquired during the offseason can’t perform well. This would leave the team with little to work with when the trade deadline comes in late July, hurting their overall plans.

In terms of what would be one of the biggest “swing factors” for the team, ESPN pointed towards Franco and if he can rebound from his disappointing 2016 season:

"“Franco’s first full season was disappointing, even though he slugged 25 home runs. He hit .255 even with a below-average strikeout rate but walked just 40 times for a subpar .306 OBP. There were some hidden positives in his season, however, that indicate he can make a leap forward. His average exit velocity equaled Nolan Arenado’s, and he had some bad luck on balls in play. He needs to hit more fly balls and cut down on his swings on pitches off the plate to tap into his power potential. If this doesn’t happen early, the Phillies might not be able to recover.”"

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Throughout the season this No. 24 ranking will almost certainly change, hopefully for the better very possibly for the worse.