Why the Phillies should not and will not sign free agent Alex Bregman

Rumors have surrounded the Philadelphia Phillies that they will make changes to their roster this offseason. Third baseman Alec Bohm's future with the team is in doubt based upon speculation the club may move on from him via trade.

If the organization decides to part with Bohm, the Phillies will need to fill a void at third base. The team has been reportedly named a suitor for the top free agents at the position as a result. Alex Bregman of the Houston Astros has been one of the primary players linked to Philadelphia if Philly makes a change at third base.

However, the process is not as simple for the Phillies as trading Bohm and making the best offer to Bregman so he agrees to sign with the organization. The contract the Astros free agent is rumored to be seeking presents financial issues for Philadelphia.

Let's look at why the Phillies should not and will not sign Bregman.

Alex Bregman's reported contract demands and required compensation create more concerns for the Phillies

According to The Athletic's Tim Britton, Chad Jennings and Aaron Gleeman, Britton predicts that Bregman will sign a seven-year, $189 million deal (subscription required). The third baseman is represented by well-known agent Scott Boras who always seeks to get more than enough money for his clients in free agency. Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper, New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole and free agent Juan Soto are just a few of the star players he represents.

Harper and Cole have already signed lucrative deals with the Phillies and Yankees, respectively. Soto and Bregman will presumably agree to mammoth contracts during this offseason. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic predicts the free agent third baseman will agree to a deal (subscription required) similar to what San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado signed in February 2023 as an extension with the organization: 11 years, $350 million.

That reported amount is another hefty deal that likely will put the Phillies out of the running for signing the Astros free agent. Philadelphia already has multiple veterans signed to multi-year deals including Harper, shortstop Trea Turner, starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola and right fielder Nick Castellanos. Designated hitter Kyle Schwarber and catcher J.T. Realmuto are both entering the final years of their contracts.

Bregman also comes with extra baggage thanks to rejected qualifying offer

Another matter that will affect the Phillies this winter is that they will have to forfeit their second and fifth-round draft selections in the 2025 MLB Draft in addition to $1 million in international bonus pool money if they agree to a deal with several key free agents, including Bregman.

MLB.com's Todd Zolecki believes the financial ramifications of signing Bregman is the main issue for the club adding him to their core this offseason.

"The Phillies are almost certainly going to cross the third luxury tax threshold this year," Zolecki writes. "They’d prefer not to push past the fourth, but it would be unavoidable if they signed Bregman. Can the Phillies really afford three $300-million players in Harper, Turner and Bregman, plus Zack Wheeler, who is going to make $42 million this year?"

The money issues Philadelphia will have if they sign Bregman could prevent the club from signing the infielder. However, they did make a generous offer to Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto last offseason when he was a free agent, according to Phillies president of baseball operations, Dave Dombrowski.

Phillies managing partner John Middleton has not been reluctant in signing multiple veterans to large contracts over the last several years. However, would they be interested in signing another position player who will be over 30 at the start of next season?

As a member of some great Astros teams that consistently had lengthy postseason runs, Bregman could be beginning to show some signs of decline offensively. His peak years at the plate were in 2018 and 2019.

Bregman's OPS of .768 this year in 145 regular season contests was his lowest since an injury-plagued 2021 season in which he finished with a .777 OPS in 91 games. He finished with 75 RBI in 2024, a drop from his 2022 total of 93 RBI in 155 games and the 98 RBI he totaled in 161 games. His 44 walks were also a significant low compared to the 87 he finished with in 2022 and in 2023 when he posted 92.

Bregman has value considering his postseason and championship experience. He would presumably find success with the core of the Phillies lineup. However, it may not be worth signing another free agent who will be 31 in March to a multi-year expensive deal.

Philadelphia already has multiple players over 30 signed for several years. Do Middleton and Dombrowski really want to sign another player in Bregman who also will come with additional luxury tax penalties, forfeits of draft picks and the cost of international bonus pool money?

Considering Dombrowski's past with the Detroit Tigers and the Boston Red Sox, and Middleton's desire to win championships, anything is possible. However, it may not be the wisest decision.

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